As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 67.5% in Maduro guilty of all counts? — $133.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 67.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +10.5 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, No has traded between 43.0% and 92.5%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 67.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 67.5% |
No is favored at 67.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 68¢ | 67.5% | -1.5 pts | $133.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 32¢ | 32.5% | +1.5 pts | $133.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 37¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$133.2K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl). If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count. The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,766 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noupeinnouguein | No | 1,766 | $1.2K |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 555 | $180 |
| Past-Disguise | Yes | 545 | $177 |
| Austere-Assist | Yes | 391 | $127 |
| Gruesome-Media | No | 385 | $260 |
| Infatuated-Devastation | Yes | 298 | $97 |
| 0x85a7420f… | No | 295 | $199 |
| Crazykekbr | Yes | 283 | $92 |
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 265 | $179 |
| Bleak-Full | No | 193 | $130 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 65.1% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 04:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.0% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 02:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $7 |
| Oct 13, 10:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 59.0% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 12:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $5 |
| Oct 05, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $8 |
| Oct 01, 04:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $30 |
| Sep 30, 08:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $0 |
| Sep 30, 08:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 03:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.4% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 67.5%. Next is Yes at 32.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-guilty-of-all-counts?via=bro
$133.2K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl.
No, priced at 67.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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