As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No prison time at 51.5% in Maduro Prison Time? — $928.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No prison time, is priced at 51.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -9.5 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, No prison time has traded between 15.5% and 63.5%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 51.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 51.5% |
No prison time is favored at 51.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prison time | 52¢ | 51.5% | -3.0 pts | $548.6K | 59.0% |
| 60+ | 21¢ | 21.0% | — | $165.4K | 17.8% |
| <20 | 8¢ | 8.0% | -0.6 pts | $122.6K | 13.2% |
| 40–60 | 5¢ | 4.9% | -0.4 pts | $29.9K | 3.2% |
| 20–40 | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.6 pts | $62.9K | 6.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$928.9K has been traded on this event in total, $2.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,233 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 10,233 | $5.0K |
| Favorite-Mammoth | Yes | 8,297 | $4.3K |
| Altruistic-Learning | No | 5,824 | $2.8K |
| Made-Up-Center | No | 4,691 | $2.3K |
| Fearful-Congress | Yes | 3,512 | $1.8K |
| Trusting-Bungalow | No | 3,465 | $1.7K |
| Pure-Threat | Yes | 1,985 | $1.0K |
| Smooth-Supreme | Yes | 1,813 | $934 |
| Unlucky-Pounding | Yes | 1,499 | $772 |
| Aggravating-Contagion | No | 1,303 | $632 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No prison time at 51.5%. Next is 60+ at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-prison-time-527?via=bro
$928.9K in total volume, with $2.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No prison time, priced at 51.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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