Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Maduro Prison Time?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No prison time at 51.5% in Maduro Prison Time? — $928.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.1K.
Leading outcome
No prison time
52%
A 51.5% price implies roughly a 52-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.0 pts7D −6.0 pts30D −9.5 pts
No prison time51.5%
60+21.0%
Bid
50¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since January 04, 2026: 15.5% – 63.5% · Opened at 15.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Maduro Prison Time?
Category
Politics, Nicolas Maduro, Trump, Geopolitics, Courts, Venezuela
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$928.9K
Volume (24h)
$2.1K
Liquidity
$145.4K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
No prison time — 51.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No prison time, is priced at 51.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -9.5 pts.

Since January 04, 2026, No prison time has traded between 15.5% and 63.5%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 51.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202657.5%
Oct 18, 202656.0%
Oct 19, 202656.5%
Oct 20, 202656.5%
Oct 22, 202655.0%
Oct 23, 202654.5%
Oct 24, 202651.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No prison time is favored at 51.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No prison time52¢51.5%-3.0 pts$548.6K59.0%
60+21¢21.0%—$165.4K17.8%
<208¢8.0%-0.6 pts$122.6K13.2%
40–605¢4.9%-0.4 pts$29.9K3.2%
20–403¢2.9%-0.6 pts$62.9K6.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$928.9K has been traded on this event in total, $2.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,233 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No10,233$5.0K
Favorite-MammothYes8,297$4.3K
Altruistic-LearningNo5,824$2.8K
Made-Up-CenterNo4,691$2.3K
Fearful-CongressYes3,512$1.8K
Trusting-BungalowNo3,465$1.7K
Pure-ThreatYes1,985$1.0K
Smooth-SupremeYes1,813$934
Unlucky-PoundingYes1,499$772
Aggravating-ContagionNo1,303$632

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $411 at 53.4%BUY No — $151 at 92.1%BUY No — $48 at 75.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY52.0%$3
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY9.2%$0
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY52.0%$3
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY9.2%$0
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY52.0%$3
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY9.2%$0
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Maduro Prison Time??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No prison time at 51.5%. Next is 60+ at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-prison-time-527?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Maduro Prison Time??

$928.9K in total volume, with $2.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Maduro Prison Time? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Maduro Prison Time?, according to Polymarket traders?

No prison time, priced at 51.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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