As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.8% in Major CEX insolvent in 2026? — $137.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -0.1 pts.
Since February 05, 2026, No has traded between 85.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 96.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.8% |
No is favored at 96.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 96.8% | -0.1 pts | $137.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 3.2% | +0.1 pts | $137.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$137.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,410 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flashy-Label | No | 8,410 | $8.1K |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 8,074 | $7.8K |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 7,688 | $246 |
| Qualified-Hypothermia | Yes | 3,181 | $102 |
| Ragged-Townhouse | Yes | 2,000 | $64 |
| Graceful-Reading | Yes | 1,834 | $59 |
| Wobbly-Chain | Yes | 1,500 | $48 |
| Ordinary-Private | Yes | 1,316 | $42 |
| 0x51b5a0c12bf89886c79723a0a5cec00404772ef4 | No | 1,192 | $1.2K |
| Faint-Controller | No | 1,000 | $968 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 07:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 06:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $188 |
| Oct 20, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.4% | $974 |
| Oct 19, 11:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.9% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 01:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $138 |
| Oct 03, 06:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $1 |
| Sep 29, 05:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $5 |
| Sep 23, 10:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.8% | $28 |
| Sep 22, 05:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.8% | $8 |
| Sep 22, 08:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.8% | $52 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.8%. Next is Yes at 3.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/major-cex-insolvent-in-2026?via=bro
$137.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
No, priced at 96.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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