Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.0% in Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? — $4.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
93%
A 93.0% price implies roughly a 93-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +0.5 pts30D +2.0 pts
No93.0%
Yes7.0%
Bid
5¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since November 12, 2025: 45.0% – 95.0% · Opened at 46.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Category
Economy, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.4K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$633
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 93.0%
Resolution source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.

Since November 12, 2025, No has traded between 45.0% and 95.0%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 93.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202693.5%
Oct 16, 202693.5%
Oct 18, 202692.5%
Oct 19, 202691.5%
Oct 20, 202693.5%
Oct 24, 202693.0%
Oct 24, 202693.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 93.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No93¢93.0%—$4.4K100.0%
Yes7¢7.0%—$4.4K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.

Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,104 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sardonic-CueNo1,104$1.0K
Simplistic-HeartwoodYes876$61
Reasonable-HesitationYes249$17
0xe68a2276…No206$192
Monumental-TraditionalismYes104$7
Double-ValleyYes100$7
Belated-GlueYes88$6
Bewitched-CherryYes86$6
Traumatic-YogurtYes76$5
Klutzy-RadishNo50$47

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $37 at 92.0%BUY No — $23 at 95.0%SELL No — $23 at 92.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 18, 06:15 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$5
Oct 18, 06:14 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$10
Oct 10, 12:15 PM ETNoSELL92.7%$23
Oct 01, 02:05 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$1
Oct 01, 02:05 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$23
Sep 18, 08:24 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$1
Sep 01, 05:01 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$6
Sep 01, 04:57 PM ETYesBUY9.0%$2
Sep 01, 03:33 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$6
Aug 28, 02:02 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.0%. Next is Yes at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/major-us-bank-bailout-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027??

$4.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/.

What is the most likely outcome of Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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