As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.0% in Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? — $4.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, No has traded between 45.0% and 95.0%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.0% |
No is favored at 93.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93¢ | 93.0% | — | $4.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $4.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,104 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sardonic-Cue | No | 1,104 | $1.0K |
| Simplistic-Heartwood | Yes | 876 | $61 |
| Reasonable-Hesitation | Yes | 249 | $17 |
| 0xe68a2276… | No | 206 | $192 |
| Monumental-Traditionalism | Yes | 104 | $7 |
| Double-Valley | Yes | 100 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 88 | $6 |
| Bewitched-Cherry | Yes | 86 | $6 |
| Traumatic-Yogurt | Yes | 76 | $5 |
| Klutzy-Radish | No | 50 | $47 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 06:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 06:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $10 |
| Oct 10, 12:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.7% | $23 |
| Oct 01, 02:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 02:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $23 |
| Sep 18, 08:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Sep 01, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $6 |
| Sep 01, 04:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Sep 01, 03:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $6 |
| Aug 28, 02:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.0%. Next is Yes at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/major-us-bank-bailout-before-2027?via=bro
$4.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/.
No, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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