As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 2.9% in Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...? — $4.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 2.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -0.9 pts; past month: +0.9 pts.
Since July 07, 2026, October 31 has traded between 1.1% and 41.5%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 2.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.3% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 4.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 1.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.1% |
October 31 is favored at 2.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.5 pts | $2.7K | 67.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 933 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tense-Precedent | No | 933 | $906 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 219 | $6 |
| Crazy-Hybridization | Yes | 154 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 138 | $4 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 112 | $3 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 84 | $2 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 75 | $2 |
| Grimy-Turnstile | Yes | 48 | $1 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $1 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 40 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 02:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $39 |
| Oct 19, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.9% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 02:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $44 |
| Oct 10, 06:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 02:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 10:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.4% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 10:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.4% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 10:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 10:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/marine-le-pen-out-as-member-of-the-national-assembly-byptptpt-20260706153645647?via=bro
$4.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 2.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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