Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 2.9% in Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...? — $4.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
October 31
3%
A 2.9% price implies roughly a 3-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts7D −0.9 pts30D +0.9 pts
Bid
2¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 07, 2026: 1.1% – 41.5% · Opened at 41.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?
Category
France, appeal, Politics, ineligibl, national rally, French Election, French Elections
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.0K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$10.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 2.9%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 2.9%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -0.9 pts; past month: +0.9 pts.

Since July 07, 2026, October 31 has traded between 1.1% and 41.5%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 2.1%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20263.3%
Oct 16, 20264.6%
Oct 18, 20264.1%
Oct 19, 20262.4%
Oct 20, 20262.2%
Oct 22, 20261.6%
Oct 23, 20262.1%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 2.9%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 313¢2.9%+0.5 pts$2.7K67.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 933 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Tense-PrecedentNo933$906
Snappy-RoosterYes219$6
Crazy-HybridizationYes154$5
Belated-GlueYes138$4
Essential-DiaristYes112$3
Direct-ChainstayYes84$2
Grim-GarageYes75$2
Grimy-TurnstileYes48$1
Bouncy-SavingYes40$1
Plump-ImplementationYes40$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $62 at 95.9%BUY No — $44 at 96.7%BUY No — $39 at 98.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 02:48 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$39
Oct 19, 02:28 PM ETYesSELL1.9%$0
Oct 19, 02:28 PM ETYesSELL2.3%$0
Oct 19, 02:28 PM ETNoBUY96.7%$44
Oct 10, 06:18 AM ETNoSELL95.4%$1
Oct 06, 02:55 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$1
Oct 06, 10:01 AM ETYesSELL3.4%$1
Oct 06, 10:01 AM ETYesSELL3.4%$1
Oct 06, 10:01 AM ETYesSELL3.6%$1
Oct 05, 10:32 PM ETYesBUY3.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/marine-le-pen-out-as-member-of-the-national-assembly-byptptpt-20260706153645647?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...??

$4.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 2.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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