As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑5k at 98.4% in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? — $8.19M traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑5k, is priced at 98.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +26.4 pts.
Since December 01, 2025, ↑5k has traded between 7.0% and 98.6%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 98.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.4% |
↑5k is favored at 98.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑5k | 98¢ | 98.4% | -0.1 pts | $339.1K | 4.1% |
| ↑4.75k | 98¢ | 97.5% | -0.2 pts | $65.0K | 0.8% |
| ↑5.5k | 94¢ | 94.2% | -3.1 pts | $3.0K | 0.0% |
| ↑6k | 82¢ | 81.5% | -2.5 pts | $23.1K | 0.3% |
| ↑6.5k | 66¢ | 66.5% | +0.5 pts | $59.7K | 0.7% |
| ↑7k | 46¢ | 46.5% | -5.5 pts | $3.3K | 0.0% |
| ↑7.5k | 22¢ | 22.5% | — | $218.8K | 2.7% |
| ↑10k | 7¢ | 7.1% | +0.1 pts | $6.53M | 79.7% |
| ↑12.5k | 5¢ | 4.8% | -0.5 pts | $359.7K | 4.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.19M has been traded on this event in total, $1.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Resolution source: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,022 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark-Inevitable | Yes | 6,022 | $5.9K |
| Near-Familiar | No | 3,793 | $61 |
| Our-Dough | Yes | 3,295 | $3.2K |
| Scared-Administrator | No | 2,814 | $45 |
| Beautiful-Thistle | Yes | 2,782 | $2.7K |
| Winged-Tart | No | 2,679 | $43 |
| Masculine-Minimum | No | 2,262 | $36 |
| Shallow-Astrology | Yes | 1,226 | $1.2K |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 885 | $871 |
| Stained-Handrail | Yes | 874 | $860 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.9% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.3% | $167 |
| Oct 23, 02:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.8% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 01:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 01:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑5k at 98.4%. Next is ↑4.75k at 97.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026?via=bro
$8.19M in total volume, with $1.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html.
↑5k, priced at 98.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.