As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October at 84.0% in Melbourne's wettest month of 2026? — $43.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October, is priced at 84.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, October has traded between 49.5% and 87.5%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 84.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.0% |
October is favored at 84.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 84¢ | 84.0% | -0.5 pts | $25.2K | 57.5% |
| November | 15¢ | 15.0% | +3.0 pts | $14.7K | 33.5% |
| December | 2¢ | 1.7% | -1.4 pts | $3.0K | 6.8% |
| August | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $998 | 2.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$43.8K has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 08, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338. Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026. If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months. The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. … (condensed)
Resolution source: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,992 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 1,992 | $1.7K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,471 | $235 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 280 | $45 |
| Proud-Orientation | Yes | 184 | $154 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 160 | $134 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 145 | $23 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 104 | $17 |
| Nutty-Hyacinth | No | 90 | $14 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 80 | $13 |
| Impassioned-Chastity | Yes | 73 | $62 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.0% | $418 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 09:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $67 |
| Oct 24, 09:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 14.8% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 14.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October at 84.0%. Next is November at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/melbournes-wettest-month-of-2026?via=bro
$43.8K in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 08, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338.
October, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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