Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October at 84.0% in Melbourne's wettest month of 2026? — $43.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.3K.
Leading outcome
October
84%
A 84.0% price implies roughly a 84-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +1.0 pts
October84.0%
November15.0%
Bid
83¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 02, 2026: 49.5% – 87.5% · Opened at 61.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
Category
Weather, Australia, Precipitation
Scheduled end
January 08, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$43.8K
Volume (24h)
$4.3K
Liquidity
$12.0K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
October — 84.0%
Resolution source
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October, is priced at 84.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts.

Since October 02, 2026, October has traded between 49.5% and 87.5%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 84.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202678.0%
Oct 18, 202681.0%
Oct 19, 202681.5%
Oct 20, 202687.5%
Oct 22, 202680.5%
Oct 23, 202685.0%
Oct 24, 202684.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October is favored at 84.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October84¢84.0%-0.5 pts$25.2K57.5%
November15¢15.0%+3.0 pts$14.7K33.5%
December2¢1.7%-1.4 pts$3.0K6.8%
August0¢0.1%—$9982.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$43.8K has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 08, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338. Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026. If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months. The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. … (condensed)

Resolution source: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,992 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Corny-HyphenationYes1,992$1.7K
0xa5ef39c3…No1,471$235
Belated-GlueNo280$45
Proud-OrientationYes184$154
Fair-TanYes160$134
Snappy-RoosterNo145$23
Gleaming-HandlebarNo104$17
Nutty-HyacinthNo90$14
Attentive-CrewmanNo80$13
Impassioned-ChastityYes73$62

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $1.1K at 81.4%BUY Yes — $586 at 86.0%SELL Yes — $425 at 84.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:12 PM ETNoSELL17.0%$1
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETYesSELL83.0%$418
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETNoBUY18.0%$36
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETNoBUY18.0%$9
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETNoBUY18.0%$12
Oct 24, 09:41 AM ETYesSELL85.0%$67
Oct 24, 09:41 AM ETNoBUY15.0%$3
Oct 24, 09:41 AM ETNoBUY14.8%$4
Oct 24, 09:41 AM ETNoBUY14.0%$1
Oct 24, 09:41 AM ETNoBUY14.0%$4

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Melbourne's wettest month of 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October at 84.0%. Next is November at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/melbournes-wettest-month-of-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Melbourne's wettest month of 2026??

$43.8K in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Melbourne's wettest month of 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 08, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338.

What is the most likely outcome of Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

October, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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