As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.0% in Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...? — $175.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.
Since May 21, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.0% and 26.0%. It opened at 12.0% and last traded at 4.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.0% |
December 31 is favored at 4.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $30.1K | 17.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$175.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,317 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfa394a59… | No | 6,317 | $6.1K |
| Short-Landform | Yes | 4,557 | $182 |
| Unlucky-Disposal-Analysis | Yes | 1,565 | $63 |
| Splendid-Pastry | Yes | 1,180 | $47 |
| Easy-Lava | No | 1,000 | $960 |
| Swift-Iris | Yes | 890 | $36 |
| Sturdy-Grouse | No | 784 | $753 |
| Plastic-Enterprise | No | 700 | $672 |
| Snarling-Center | Yes | 510 | $20 |
| Vital-Diversity | No | 411 | $395 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 01:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 11:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 05:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 03:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 03:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 03:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 03:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $87 |
| Oct 13, 01:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 06:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/meloni-out-as-prime-minister-of-italy-by-june-30?via=bro
$175.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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