Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 52.6% in Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? — $723 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
53%
A 52.6% price implies roughly a 53-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +39.8 pts7D +39.8 pts30D +31.9 pts
No52.6%
Yes47.4%
Bid
1¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
92¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 19, 2026: 80.8% – 98.9% · Opened at 85.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
Category
M&A, MRK, MRNA, Merck, pharma, Finance, Moderna, Science, Business, mergers and acquisitions
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$723
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$39
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 52.6%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 52.6%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +39.8 pts; past week: +39.8 pts; past month: +31.9 pts.

Since August 19, 2026, No has traded between 80.8% and 98.9%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 92.4%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202696.1%
Oct 16, 202692.3%
Oct 18, 202692.3%
Oct 19, 202692.3%
Oct 20, 202692.4%
Oct 22, 202692.4%
Oct 23, 202692.4%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 52.6%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No53¢52.6%-39.8 pts$723100.0%
Yes47¢47.4%+39.8 pts$723100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 92¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$723 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries. An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 212 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Wobbly-ChainNo212$112
Belated-GlueYes205$97
0xecf933cc…No60$32
Haunting-Ford-DeterminationYes28$13
Damaged-BifocalsYes20$10
Essential-DiaristYes20$9
Arctic-KickoffNo17$9
Evil-RowYes11$5
Energetic-GaspYes6$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $174 at 82.0%BUY No — $37 at 88.6%BUY No — $20 at 99.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 11, 06:37 AM ETYesBUY2.6%$1
Oct 08, 06:09 AM ETNoBUY88.7%$16
Oct 08, 06:09 AM ETNoBUY88.6%$37
Oct 07, 10:23 AM ETYesBUY8.6%$2
Oct 06, 08:59 PM ETYesBUY8.2%$1
Oct 04, 09:00 AM ETYesBUY8.7%$2
Oct 04, 04:03 AM ETYesBUY8.1%$5
Oct 03, 11:44 PM ETYesBUY8.0%$1
Oct 03, 05:46 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$9
Oct 01, 07:59 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$3

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 52.6%. Next is Yes at 47.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/merck-moderna-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026??

$723 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 52.6% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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