As of October 24, 2026, 09:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 52.6% in Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? — $723 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 52.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +39.8 pts; past week: +39.8 pts; past month: +31.9 pts.
Since August 19, 2026, No has traded between 80.8% and 98.9%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 92.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 92.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.4% |
No is favored at 52.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 53¢ | 52.6% | -39.8 pts | $723 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 47¢ | 47.4% | +39.8 pts | $723 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 92¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$723 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries. An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 212 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 212 | $112 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 205 | $97 |
| 0xecf933cc… | No | 60 | $32 |
| Haunting-Ford-Determination | Yes | 28 | $13 |
| Damaged-Bifocals | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 17 | $9 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 11 | $5 |
| Energetic-Gasp | Yes | 6 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 06:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.6% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 06:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.7% | $16 |
| Oct 08, 06:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.6% | $37 |
| Oct 07, 10:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.6% | $2 |
| Oct 06, 08:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.2% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 09:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.7% | $2 |
| Oct 04, 04:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.1% | $5 |
| Oct 03, 11:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 05:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $9 |
| Oct 01, 07:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 52.6%. Next is Yes at 47.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/merck-moderna-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026?via=bro
$723 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 52.6% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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