As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price PAN at 70.5% in Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place? — $86.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, PAN, is priced at 70.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: -6.5 pts.
Since May 21, 2026, PAN has traded between 8.5% and 85.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 69.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.0% |
PAN is favored at 70.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAN | 70¢ | 70.5% | +1.5 pts | $39.1K | 45.1% |
| PRI | 13¢ | 13.3% | -0.1 pts | $15.4K | 17.7% |
| PVEM | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $13.2K | 15.3% |
| MC | 6¢ | 5.6% | +0.3 pts | $5.1K | 5.9% |
| Morena | 4¢ | 3.9% | -3.4 pts | $5.5K | 6.3% |
| PT | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $8.4K | 9.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 68¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$86.6K has been traded on this event in total, $43 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Resolution source: https://ine.mx/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,679 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgaron | Yes | 6,679 | $4.7K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,903 | $1.2K |
| Untimely-Fresco | No | 2,854 | $842 |
| Straight-Apprehension | Yes | 2,000 | $1.4K |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 930 | $274 |
| Somber-Phrase | Yes | 799 | $563 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 554 | $163 |
| Awesome-Method-Fit | No | 361 | $107 |
| Each-Timeline | No | 300 | $88 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 284 | $200 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 06:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 06:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 12:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 25.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.9% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 12:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 25.0% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 06:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 05:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 06:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is PAN at 70.5%. Next is PRI at 13.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mexico-legislative-election-2nd-place?via=bro
$86.6K in total volume, with $43 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://ine.mx/.
PAN, priced at 70.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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