As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Morena at 87.3% in Mexico Legislative Election Winner — $115.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Morena, is priced at 87.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.8 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -3.8 pts.
Since May 16, 2026, Morena has traded between 68.4% and 97.8%. It opened at 83.5% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 86.8% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 86.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.5% |
Morena is favored at 87.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morena | 87¢ | 87.3% | +1.8 pts | $57.8K | 50.1% |
| PAN | 5¢ | 4.9% | +0.1 pts | $22.5K | 19.5% |
| MC | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $12.2K | 10.6% |
| PRI | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $8.8K | 7.6% |
| PVEM | 0¢ | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $6.6K | 5.7% |
| PT | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $7.6K | 6.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$115.4K has been traded on this event in total, $14 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Resolution source: https://ine.mx/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,408 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgaron | Yes | 5,408 | $4.7K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,793 | $482 |
| 0x0a22d97f… | No | 3,237 | $411 |
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 1,239 | $1.1K |
| Scared-Administrator | Yes | 628 | $548 |
| Our-Dough | No | 460 | $58 |
| Apprehensive-Spectrum | No | 456 | $58 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 430 | $375 |
| Fruitful-Ectoderm | Yes | 390 | $340 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 382 | $334 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.1% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.2% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 02:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 11.9% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 10.8% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 08:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.5% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 05:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 05:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 05:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 88.6% | $17 |
| Oct 21, 05:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 12.3% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 05:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 87.3% | $140 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Morena at 87.3%. Next is PAN at 4.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mexico-legislative-election-winner?via=bro
$115.4K in total volume, with $14 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://ine.mx/.
Morena, priced at 87.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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