As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Morena at 79.5% in Michoacán Congress Election Winner — $8.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Morena, is priced at 79.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: +16.5 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, Morena has traded between 37.5% and 77.0%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 77.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.0% |
Morena is favored at 79.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morena | 80¢ | 79.5% | +4.0 pts | $1.6K | 19.1% |
| Party A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AA | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AB | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AC | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AD | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| PAN | 7¢ | 7.0% | -1.5 pts | $1.1K | 13.1% |
| PT | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $3.5K | 42.7% |
| PVEM | 4¢ | 4.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.2K | 14.7% |
| PRI | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $384 | 4.7% |
| MC | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $475 | 5.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.3K has been traded on this event in total, $334 of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections to elect the 40 members of the Congress of the State of Michoacán are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Michoacán as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral de Michoacán. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral de Michoacán, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 497 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 497 | $395 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 448 | $92 |
| Authorized-Mandolin | Yes | 344 | $273 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 137 | $28 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 85 | $17 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 50 | $10 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 34 | $7 |
| Advanced-Mailer | No | 33 | $7 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 20 | $4 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 20 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 06:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 02:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 11:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.6% | $286 |
| Oct 21, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $46 |
| Oct 21, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $46 |
| Oct 21, 11:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $17 |
| Oct 21, 11:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 76.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Morena at 79.5%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/michoacan-congress-election-winner?via=bro
$8.3K in total volume, with $334 traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Morena, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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