As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 48% to 50% at 46.0% in Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)? — $11.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 48% to 50%, is priced at 46.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +16.5 pts; past week: +22.5 pts.
Since October 13, 2026, 48% to 50% has traded between 18.0% and 46.0%. It opened at 18.0% and last traded at 46.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 46.0% |
48% to 50% is favored at 46.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48% to 50% | 46¢ | 46.0% | +16.5 pts | $3.4K | 29.6% |
| 46% to 48% | 28¢ | 28.5% | -35.0 pts | $3.6K | 30.8% |
| 50%+ | 16¢ | 15.8% | +9.0 pts | $917 | 7.9% |
| 44% to 46% | 12¢ | 12.0% | +2.0 pts | $3.2K | 27.2% |
| <44% | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $517 | 4.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 44¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.6K has been traded on this event in total, $2.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 28, 2026, 06:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (constant currency) (year-over-year) for the upcoming first fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 527 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 527 | $285 |
| Insubstantial-Coffee | Yes | 174 | $80 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 127 | $59 |
| LIBAI | Yes | 100 | $46 |
| Careful-Bunch | Yes | 84 | $39 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 64 | $35 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 60 | $28 |
| Scary-Neck-Vascular | No | 40 | $22 |
| Amazing-Antelope-Shakedown | Yes | 34 | $15 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 31 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 05:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 45.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 42.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 03:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 03:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 44.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 48% to 50% at 46.0%. Next is 46% to 48% at 28.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/microsoft-msft-q1-azure-revenue-growth-constant-currency-20261008120057000?via=bro
$11.6K in total volume, with $2.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 28, 2026, 06:00 PM ET.
48% to 50%, priced at 46.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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