As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 7.5% in Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...? — $2.30M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 7.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since January 05, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.5% and 73.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 8.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.5% |
December 31 is favored at 7.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8¢ | 7.5% | +1.0 pts | $779.4K | 33.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.30M has been traded on this event in total, $21.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 29,258 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detailed-Lip | No | 29,258 | $27.1K |
| Our-Dough | Yes | 18,525 | $1.4K |
| Minty-Luxury | Yes | 11,495 | $862 |
| Quick-Cardboard | No | 10,082 | $9.3K |
| Unwelcome-Grin | No | 7,883 | $7.3K |
| Mature-Dungeon | Yes | 7,318 | $549 |
| 0x4e25605f… | Yes | 6,879 | $516 |
| Parallel-Dozen | No | 5,378 | $5.0K |
| Impassioned-Light | Yes | 4,837 | $363 |
| Offbeat-Menorah | No | 3,800 | $3.5K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $322 |
| Oct 24, 11:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 10:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $180 |
| Oct 24, 07:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 07:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $27 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30?via=bro
$2.30M in total volume, with $21.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 7.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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