As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 53.0% in Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...? — $19.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 53.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, November 30 has traded between 33.0% and 80.0%. It opened at 80.0% and last traded at 53.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 33.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.0% |
November 30 is favored at 53.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 53¢ | 53.0% | +4.5 pts | $3.4K | 17.2% |
| October 31 | 32¢ | 31.5% | +2.5 pts | $4.4K | 22.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 52¢ / ask 54¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$19.8K has been traded on this event in total, $530 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if King Khalid International Airport (RUH) is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” King Khalid International Airport refers to the international airport serving Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (IATA: RUH; ICAO: OERK), including its runways, taxiways, aprons, terminals, and other facilities within the airport grounds. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts King Khalid International Airport. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 204 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measly-Commotion | Yes | 204 | $108 |
| Sunny-Caramel | No | 100 | $47 |
| Uncommon-Gutter-Stance | No | 77 | $36 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 70 | $37 |
| Tasty-Zampone | No | 68 | $32 |
| Evil-Row | No | 54 | $25 |
| This-Wiretap | No | 52 | $24 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 40 | $19 |
| Winged-Maker | Yes | 37 | $20 |
| Tricky-Usher | Yes | 25 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.5% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $61 |
| Oct 24, 12:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 10:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 49.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 53.0%. Next is October 31 at 31.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/military-action-against-king-khalid-international-airport-ruh-byptptpt?via=bro
$19.8K in total volume, with $530 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 53.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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