As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 62.5% in Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...? — $195.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 62.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +15.0 pts; past week: +6.0 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, November 30 has traded between 40.5% and 70.5%. It opened at 52.5% and last traded at 62.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 62.5% |
November 30 is favored at 62.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 62¢ | 62.5% | +15.0 pts | $59.3K | 30.3% |
| October 31 | 34¢ | 34.0% | +18.5 pts | $98.4K | 50.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 62¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$195.8K has been traded on this event in total, $14.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,824 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villainous-Crook | No | 4,824 | $1.8K |
| Exhausted-String | Yes | 2,206 | $1.4K |
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | Yes | 2,010 | $1.3K |
| Accurate-Spirit | No | 1,658 | $622 |
| Brown-Tragedy | Yes | 1,477 | $923 |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 933 | $350 |
| 0x7678aa83… | Yes | 902 | $564 |
| Immense-Patriot | Yes | 682 | $426 |
| Queasy-Airship | Yes | 600 | $375 |
| Tough-Garter | Yes | 500 | $312 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $67 |
| Oct 24, 05:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 62.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 61.0% | $66 |
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $268 |
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 05:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $89 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 30.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.0% | $445 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 62.5%. Next is October 31 at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/military-action-against-saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-byptptpt?via=bro
$195.8K in total volume, with $14.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 62.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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