Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 62.5% in Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...? — $195.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $14.2K.
Leading outcome
November 30
62%
A 62.5% price implies roughly a 62-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +15.0 pts7D +6.0 pts
November 3062.5%
October 3134.0%
Bid
62¢
Ask
63¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since October 07, 2026: 40.5% – 70.5% · Opened at 52.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
Category
Oil, Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Politics, Geopolitics, Saudi Arabia
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET
Total volume
$195.8K
Volume (24h)
$14.2K
Liquidity
$75.4K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 62.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 62.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +15.0 pts; past week: +6.0 pts.

Since October 07, 2026, November 30 has traded between 40.5% and 70.5%. It opened at 52.5% and last traded at 62.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202656.5%
Oct 18, 202656.5%
Oct 19, 202640.5%
Oct 20, 202644.0%
Oct 22, 202650.0%
Oct 23, 202647.5%
Oct 24, 202662.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 62.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3062¢62.5%+15.0 pts$59.3K30.3%
October 3134¢34.0%+18.5 pts$98.4K50.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 62¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$195.8K has been traded on this event in total, $14.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,824 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Villainous-CrookNo4,824$1.8K
Exhausted-StringYes2,206$1.4K
Spiffy-Enactment-StrengthYes2,010$1.3K
Accurate-SpiritNo1,658$622
Brown-TragedyYes1,477$923
Capital-EndodermNo933$350
0x7678aa83…Yes902$564
Immense-PatriotYes682$426
Queasy-AirshipYes600$375
Tough-GarterYes500$312

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $445 at 61.0%SELL Yes — $268 at 68.0%SELL Yes — $236 at 68.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:32 PM ETNoBUY67.0%$67
Oct 24, 05:54 PM ETYesSELL62.0%$19
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETYesSELL61.0%$66
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETYesSELL68.0%$268
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETNoBUY36.0%$18
Oct 24, 05:41 PM ETNoSELL64.0%$32
Oct 24, 05:41 PM ETYesBUY35.0%$49
Oct 24, 05:19 PM ETYesSELL33.0%$89
Oct 24, 05:18 PM ETNoSELL30.0%$7
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETYesBUY61.0%$445

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 62.5%. Next is October 31 at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/military-action-against-saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...??

$195.8K in total volume, with $14.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 62.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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