As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yordan Alvarez at 97.8% in MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner — $428.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yordan Alvarez, is priced at 97.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: +1.9 pts; past month: +0.6 pts.
Since February 19, 2026, Yordan Alvarez has traded between 13.0% and 98.2%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 97.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.8% |
Yordan Alvarez is favored at 97.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | 98¢ | 97.8% | -0.4 pts | $9.2K | 2.2% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $899 | 0.2% |
| Junior Caminero | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $254 | 0.1% |
| Pete Alonso | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $204 | 0.0% |
| Ben Rice | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $204 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$428.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 599 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Each-Summary | Yes | 599 | $586 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 590 | $13 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 400 | $9 |
| Decent-Corporal | Yes | 300 | $293 |
| Impressive-Principle | Yes | 218 | $213 |
| Outlandish-Complicity | Yes | 100 | $98 |
| Evil-Row | No | 100 | $2 |
| Playful-Lycra | No | 84 | $2 |
| Strict-Blind | Yes | 71 | $69 |
| Expensive-Struggle | Yes | 70 | $68 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 09:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.4% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.9% | $8 |
| Oct 19, 03:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.7% | $14 |
| Oct 16, 10:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $7 |
| Oct 16, 10:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $10 |
| Oct 16, 10:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $8 |
| Oct 16, 10:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $15 |
| Oct 16, 01:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.1% | $30 |
| Oct 16, 01:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 08:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.5% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yordan Alvarez at 97.8%. Next is Bobby Witt Jr. at 0.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner?via=bro
$428.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yordan Alvarez, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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