As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 500K-550K at 42.0% in Montana Senate Election: Turnout — $11.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 500K-550K, is priced at 42.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: -15.0 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, 500K-550K has traded between 18.0% and 60.0%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 35.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 37.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 35.0% |
500K-550K is favored at 42.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500K-550K | 42¢ | 42.0% | +8.5 pts | $5.1K | 43.1% |
| 450K-500K | 33¢ | 33.1% | +0.2 pts | $2.5K | 21.3% |
| 350K-400K | 14¢ | 14.4% | -5.4 pts | $546 | 4.6% |
| 550K-600K | 6¢ | 6.3% | +0.4 pts | $2.0K | 17.2% |
| 400K-450K | 6¢ | 6.2% | -0.5 pts | $507 | 4.3% |
| 600K+ | 5¢ | 5.1% | -1.0 pts | $701 | 6.0% |
| <350K | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.5 pts | $418 | 3.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 31¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.8K has been traded on this event in total, $760 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 495 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | Yes | 495 | $208 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 316 | $183 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 195 | $113 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 184 | $77 |
| Agitated-Mobster | No | 116 | $67 |
| Evil-Row | No | 106 | $62 |
| Spicy-Acrylic | Yes | 50 | $21 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 40 | $23 |
| Quarterly-Locker | Yes | 38 | $16 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 27 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 03:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 500K-550K at 42.0%. Next is 450K-500K at 33.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/montana-senate-election-turnout?via=bro
$11.8K in total volume, with $760 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
500K-550K, priced at 42.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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