As of October 24, 2026, 09:09 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 59.0% in Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027? — $1.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 59.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.5 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, No has traded between 54.5% and 87.0%. It opened at 79.5% and last traded at 54.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 54.5% |
No is favored at 59.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 59¢ | 59.0% | +4.5 pts | $1.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 41¢ | 41.0% | -4.5 pts | $1.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the mortgage delinquency rate is greater than 3.00% for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The mortgage delinquency rate is the delinquency rate on residential real estate loans shown in the "Residential" column under "Real estate loans, Booked in domestic offices" in the Federal Reserve's "Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA" table (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm). This market will resolve as soon as the mortgage delinquency rate for a qualifying quarter is greater than 3.00%, or once data for Q4 2027 has been published. If no data for Q4 2027 has been published by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. All published quarterly figures will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve table linked above. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 182 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 182 | $107 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 166 | $68 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 32 | $19 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 22 | $9 |
| Gargantuan-Hydrocarb | No | 21 | $12 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Dirty-Burn | No | 20 | $12 |
| Muted-Accuracy | Yes | 7 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 04:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $12 |
| Oct 09, 03:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 08, 03:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $2 |
| Oct 08, 02:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 05:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $12 |
| Oct 07, 05:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 05:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $12 |
| Oct 07, 05:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $12 |
| Oct 07, 05:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $12 |
| Oct 07, 05:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 59.0%. Next is Yes at 41.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mortgage-delinquency-rate-exceeds-3-by-end-of-q4-2027?via=bro
$1.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm.
No, priced at 59.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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