Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 68.5% in MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026? — $135 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
Yes
68%
A 68.5% price implies roughly a 68-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +22.0 pts7D −2.0 pts30D +1.0 pts
Yes68.5%
No31.5%
Bid
49¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
39¢
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Range since June 16, 2026: 14.5% – 74.5% · Opened at 53.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
Category
MPS, Italy, merger, Banking, Finance, acquisition, mergers and acquisitions
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$135
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$81
Markets
1
Leading outcome
Yes — 68.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 68.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +22.0 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.

Since June 16, 2026, Yes has traded between 14.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 53.5% and last traded at 68.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202646.0%
Oct 15, 202647.5%
Oct 16, 202649.0%
Oct 18, 202668.5%
Oct 19, 202668.0%
Oct 20, 202671.0%
Oct 24, 202668.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Yes is favored at 68.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Yes68¢68.5%+22.0 pts$135100.0%
No32¢31.5%-22.0 pts$135100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 39¢ (bid 49¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$135 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Intesa Sanpaolo, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo and must not be restricted to only the subsidiaries of either company. An announcement by MPS or Intesa Sanpaolo within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 65 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes65$44
Gleaming-FilingNo28$9
0x2e462192…No20$6
Whole-MustardNo10$3
High-BoarNo7$2
0xf5286079…No4$1
Mortified-WetlandYes4$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $35 at 89.0%BUY Yes — $13 at 66.0%BUY No — $6 at 58.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 17, 11:29 AM ETYesBUY28.0%$6
Oct 09, 07:08 PM ETNoBUY22.0%$4
Oct 09, 06:48 PM ETYesBUY66.0%$13
Oct 08, 10:27 PM ETNoBUY58.0%$6
Aug 17, 06:25 AM ETYesBUY27.0%$2
Jul 20, 01:46 PM ETYesSELL6.0%$0
Jul 15, 03:44 PM ETYesBUY27.0%$1
Jul 14, 01:38 PM ETYesBUY49.0%$6
Jul 14, 01:37 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$35

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 68.5%. Next is No at 31.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mps-x-intesa-sanpaolo-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026-20260612212324741?via=bro

How much money has been traded on MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026??

$135 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

Yes, priced at 68.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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