As of October 24, 2026, 09:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 68.5% in MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026? — $135 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 68.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +22.0 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since June 16, 2026, Yes has traded between 14.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 53.5% and last traded at 68.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.5% |
Yes is favored at 68.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68¢ | 68.5% | +22.0 pts | $135 | 100.0% |
| No | 32¢ | 31.5% | -22.0 pts | $135 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 39¢ (bid 49¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$135 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Intesa Sanpaolo, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo and must not be restricted to only the subsidiaries of either company. An announcement by MPS or Intesa Sanpaolo within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 65 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 65 | $44 |
| Gleaming-Filing | No | 28 | $9 |
| 0x2e462192… | No | 20 | $6 |
| Whole-Mustard | No | 10 | $3 |
| High-Boar | No | 7 | $2 |
| 0xf5286079… | No | 4 | $1 |
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 4 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $6 |
| Oct 09, 07:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 09, 06:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
| Oct 08, 10:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 58.0% | $6 |
| Aug 17, 06:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $2 |
| Jul 20, 01:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Jul 15, 03:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $1 |
| Jul 14, 01:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $6 |
| Jul 14, 01:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $35 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 68.5%. Next is No at 31.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mps-x-intesa-sanpaolo-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026-20260612212324741?via=bro
$135 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 68.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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