As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 7.9% in Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...? — $945.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 7.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.4 pts; past week: -2.6 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 5.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 7.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 7.9% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 7.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 8¢ | 7.9% | +1.4 pts | $15.7K | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$945.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,085 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaseous-Visit-Duckling | No | 2,085 | $1.9K |
| Extra-Large-Defeat | Yes | 436 | $34 |
| Shady-Dog | Yes | 390 | $31 |
| 0x52eb1e57… | Yes | 348 | $27 |
| Daring-Angora | Yes | 219 | $17 |
| Afraid-Retrospect | Yes | 159 | $13 |
| Last-Cocktail | Yes | 142 | $11 |
| Fat-Embellishment | No | 106 | $97 |
| Immaterial-Beret-Impostor | No | 100 | $92 |
| Disastrous-Bend | Yes | 95 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 12:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 05:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $100 |
| Oct 20, 05:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.8% | $41 |
| Oct 15, 05:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.4% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 04:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.1% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 04:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.4% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 04:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.2% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 09:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.5% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 09:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.5% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 09:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.6% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 7.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31?via=bro
$945.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 7.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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