As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Aliyu Wadada Ahmed at 71.5% in Nasarawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner — $17.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Aliyu Wadada Ahmed, is priced at 71.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: +6.5 pts; past month: +9.0 pts.
Since August 21, 2026, Aliyu Wadada Ahmed has traded between 49.5% and 73.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 71.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 71.5% |
Aliyu Wadada Ahmed is favored at 71.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliyu Wadada Ahmed | 72¢ | 71.5% | -2.5 pts | $5.5K | 31.6% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Emmanuel David Ombugadu | 18¢ | 17.9% | -0.2 pts | $495 | 2.8% |
| Mohammed Abubakar Adamu | 5¢ | 4.9% | -0.2 pts | $344 | 2.0% |
| Gbefwi Gaza Jonathan | 3¢ | 3.1% | — | $322 | 1.8% |
| Nuhu Angbazo | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $10.8K | 61.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.5K has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nasarawa State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nasarawa State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 569 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 569 | $407 |
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 181 | $129 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 169 | $48 |
| Motionless-Administration | No | 159 | $45 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 150 | $43 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 132 | $38 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 100 | $28 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 88 | $63 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 55 | $16 |
| Golden-Panpipe | Yes | 50 | $36 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 09:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 05:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.1% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 05:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $33 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 05:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $29 |
| Oct 21, 05:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 08:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 24.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Aliyu Wadada Ahmed at 71.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nasarawa-nigeria-governor-election-winner?via=bro
$17.5K in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Aliyu Wadada Ahmed, priced at 71.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.