As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.0% in NATO article 5 before 2027? — $301.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.4 pts; past month: -2.4 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 75.5% and 95.8%. It opened at 80.5% and last traded at 95.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.0% |
No is favored at 95.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.0% | — | $301.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $301.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$301.1K has been traded on this event in total, $26 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 59,700 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue-Shape | No | 59,700 | $56.7K |
| Direct-Mist-Forelimb | Yes | 52,561 | $2.6K |
| Shallow-Thyme-Rally | Yes | 50,525 | $2.5K |
| Stable-Fog | No | 33,638 | $32.0K |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 28,410 | $1.4K |
| Round-Resolution | No | 23,821 | $22.6K |
| Pleasant-Councilor | No | 12,729 | $12.1K |
| Definite-Brewer | No | 11,966 | $11.4K |
| Sick-Placement | No | 8,275 | $7.9K |
| Silky-Geometry | Yes | 5,648 | $280 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.1% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 01:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.4% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 01:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 02:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $25 |
| Oct 21, 09:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.1% | $54 |
| Oct 21, 12:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $66 |
| Oct 21, 12:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 04:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.1% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 02:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $491 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.0%. Next is Yes at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-before-2027?via=bro
$301.1K in total volume, with $26 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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