As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.7% in NATO dissolves before 2027? — $125.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.2 pts.
Since January 08, 2026, No has traded between 90.5% and 98.9%. It opened at 91.5% and last traded at 98.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.7% |
No is favored at 98.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99¢ | 98.7% | — | $125.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 1¢ | 1.3% | — | $125.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$125.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,939 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dependable-Propane | Yes | 3,939 | $51 |
| Polite-Beach | Yes | 2,206 | $29 |
| Odd-Okra | No | 2,131 | $2.1K |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 2,123 | $2.1K |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 1,970 | $1.9K |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 1,605 | $1.6K |
| Imbafer | No | 1,500 | $1.5K |
| Which-Corral | Yes | 1,238 | $16 |
| Tedious-Accordance | No | 1,064 | $1.0K |
| Worthy-Crook | Yes | 1,052 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.5% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 02:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 10:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.5% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 03:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 02:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 01:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 07:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.6% | $197 |
| Oct 12, 05:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.6% | $114 |
| Oct 10, 03:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.6% | $5 |
| Oct 09, 12:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.5% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.7%. Next is Yes at 1.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nato-dissolves-before-2027?via=bro
$125.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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