Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 72.0% in NATO downs another Russian drone by...? — $560 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $387.
Leading outcome
November 30
72%
A 72.0% price implies roughly a 72-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +4.5 pts
November 3072.0%
October 3120.0%
Bid
60¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
24¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 23, 2026: 67.5% – 72.0% · Opened at 67.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
Category
NATO, putin, Poland, Russia, Politics, Geopolitics, Military Actions
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$560
Volume (24h)
$387
Liquidity
$2.4K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 72.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 72.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, November 30 has traded between 67.5% and 72.0%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 72.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 72.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3072¢72.0%+4.5 pts$18232.5%
October 3120¢20.0%-4.5 pts$37867.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 24¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$560 has been traded on this event in total, $387 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 127 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Failing-HypothermiaYes127$92
Ignorant-VintnerNo125$35
Unwelcome-KioskYes32$23
Worthy-StorytellingNo27$8
Vengeful-Nun-UnderstandingNo23$6
Tricky-UsherYes18$13
Tame-Deed-SynonymNo2$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $82 at 82.0%BUY No — $62 at 84.0%BUY No — $50 at 40.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETNoBUY40.0%$50
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETNoBUY85.0%$50
Oct 24, 12:04 PM ETNoBUY43.0%$1
Oct 24, 12:04 PM ETNoBUY85.0%$1
Oct 24, 09:50 AM ETYesBUY31.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:28 AM ETNoBUY83.0%$16
Oct 24, 07:23 AM ETNoBUY83.0%$9
Oct 24, 06:14 AM ETNoBUY57.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:12 AM ETNoBUY83.0%$4
Oct 24, 06:12 AM ETNoBUY82.0%$82

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of NATO downs another Russian drone by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 72.0%. Next is October 31 at 20.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-byptptpt-20261022?via=bro

How much money has been traded on NATO downs another Russian drone by...??

$560 in total volume, with $387 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does NATO downs another Russian drone by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of NATO downs another Russian drone by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 72.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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