As of October 24, 2026, 09:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 72.0% in NATO downs another Russian drone by...? — $560 traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 72.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, November 30 has traded between 67.5% and 72.0%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 72.0%.
November 30 is favored at 72.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 72¢ | 72.0% | +4.5 pts | $182 | 32.5% |
| October 31 | 20¢ | 20.0% | -4.5 pts | $378 | 67.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 24¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$560 has been traded on this event in total, $387 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 127 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Failing-Hypothermia | Yes | 127 | $92 |
| Ignorant-Vintner | No | 125 | $35 |
| Unwelcome-Kiosk | Yes | 32 | $23 |
| Worthy-Storytelling | No | 27 | $8 |
| Vengeful-Nun-Understanding | No | 23 | $6 |
| Tricky-Usher | Yes | 18 | $13 |
| Tame-Deed-Synonym | No | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 12:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 07:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $82 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 72.0%. Next is October 31 at 20.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-byptptpt-20261022?via=bro
$560 in total volume, with $387 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 72.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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