As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.4% in NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027? — $18.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.2 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, No has traded between 94.8% and 96.7%. It opened at 95.0% and last traded at 95.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.4% |
No is favored at 95.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.4% | -0.1 pts | $18.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 4.6% | +0.1 pts | $18.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$18.8K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO member state enter Yemen for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict in Yemen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by NATO or the member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or the member state to have entered Yemen for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with the Houthis. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they must be active duty troops and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however infantry engaging Houthi forces, or personnel conducting combat operations against the Houthis from Yemeni soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). Only members of the regular armed forces of a NATO member state will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,211 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rundown-Boundary | Yes | 2,211 | $102 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 2,000 | $92 |
| Finished-Wind | No | 1,991 | $1.9K |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 1,050 | $1.0K |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 764 | $729 |
| Fat-Charge | No | 569 | $542 |
| Unsightly-Puma | Yes | 500 | $23 |
| Small-Pompom | No | 345 | $329 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 311 | $14 |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 262 | $250 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.9% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.8% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $8 |
| Oct 20, 11:26 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 11:02 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.2% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.3% | $14 |
| Oct 19, 03:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 03:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 03:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 03:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.8% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.4%. Next is Yes at 4.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nato-troops-fighting-in-yemen-before-2027?via=bro
$18.8K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.4% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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