As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 3.9% in NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...? — $487.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 3.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +0.2 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 2.9% and 47.0%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 3.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 3.7% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.9% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 3.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 3.9% | +0.8 pts | $159.3K | 32.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$487.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,195 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violet-Sisterinlaw-Tail | No | 1,195 | $1.1K |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 1,191 | $46 |
| Recent-Pumpkinseed-Wagon | Yes | 926 | $36 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 397 | $381 |
| Elliptical-Perspective | No | 353 | $339 |
| Capital-Sari | Yes | 310 | $12 |
| Wry-Elm | No | 222 | $214 |
| Glorious-Cinder-Guitarist | No | 212 | $203 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 208 | $8 |
| Naughty-Min | Yes | 155 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 05:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 10:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 02:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 08:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $61 |
| Oct 19, 01:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $3 |
| Oct 17, 06:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.8% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 02:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $28 |
| Oct 16, 02:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $19 |
| Oct 16, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 3.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025?via=bro
$487.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 3.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.