Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 3.9% in NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...? — $487.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026
4%
A 3.9% price implies roughly a 4-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.8 pts7D +0.2 pts30D −1.5 pts
Bid
3¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 30, 2026: 2.9% – 47.0% · Opened at 47.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?
Category
Ukraine, Politics, Geopolitics, Russia, NATO, eu, World, Trump-Zelenskyy, Security Guarantee
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$487.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$21.6K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026 — 3.9%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 3.9%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +0.2 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.

Since June 30, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 2.9% and 47.0%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 3.9%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 20263.7%
Oct 15, 20264.2%
Oct 16, 20264.3%
Oct 18, 20263.6%
Oct 19, 20263.6%
Oct 20, 20262.9%
Oct 24, 20263.9%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2026 is favored at 3.9%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 20264¢3.9%+0.8 pts$159.3K32.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$487.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,195 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Violet-Sisterinlaw-TailNo1,195$1.1K
Monstrous-DewYes1,191$46
Recent-Pumpkinseed-WagonYes926$36
Bitter-CartoonNo397$381
Elliptical-PerspectiveNo353$339
Capital-SariYes310$12
Wry-ElmNo222$214
Glorious-Cinder-GuitaristNo212$203
Belated-GlueYes208$8
Naughty-MinYes155$6

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $383 at 96.6%BUY No — $209 at 93.9%SELL No — $142 at 94.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 06:25 PM ETNoBUY96.9%$5
Oct 23, 05:59 PM ETNoBUY96.9%$10
Oct 21, 10:53 PM ETNoSELL96.1%$5
Oct 21, 02:56 AM ETYesBUY3.3%$1
Oct 20, 08:56 AM ETYesSELL3.0%$61
Oct 19, 01:32 PM ETNoSELL95.5%$3
Oct 17, 06:16 PM ETNoBUY96.8%$5
Oct 16, 02:32 AM ETYesSELL3.2%$28
Oct 16, 02:30 AM ETYesSELL3.2%$19
Oct 16, 02:27 AM ETYesSELL3.2%$20

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 3.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025?via=bro

How much money has been traded on NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...??

$487.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2026, priced at 3.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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