As of October 24, 2026, 09:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.0% in Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? — $1.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: -10.5 pts.
Since April 21, 2026, No has traded between 37.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 67.0% and last traded at 89.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.0% |
No is favored at 89.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 89¢ | 89.0% | -0.5 pts | $1.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 11¢ | 11.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 127 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occasional-Persimmon | Yes | 127 | $14 |
| Limp-Drawer | No | 98 | $88 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | No | 84 | $75 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 80 | $9 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 73 | $8 |
| Both-Shoreline | No | 57 | $51 |
| Dull-Universe | No | 32 | $29 |
| Worthwhile-Safety | Yes | 12 | $1 |
| Embarrassed-Prophet | No | 9 | $8 |
| 0x271229d5… | No | 4 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 09:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 01:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $5 |
| Oct 06, 08:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 06, 08:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 11:25 AM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 11:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.5% | $2 |
| Oct 06, 11:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $5 |
| Oct 06, 07:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $5 |
| Oct 06, 05:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 05:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.0%. Next is Yes at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nawaf-salam-out-as-lebanon-pm-in-2026?via=bro
$1.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.