As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2.5+ Wins at 92.5% in NCAA Football: Michigan State 2026 Win Total — $22.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 2.5+ Wins, is priced at 92.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +15.0 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since August 12, 2026, 2.5+ Wins has traded between 49.0% and 94.8%. It opened at 86.0% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 80.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.0% |
2.5+ Wins is favored at 92.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5+ Wins | 93¢ | 92.5% | +15.0 pts | $1.7K | 7.8% |
| 3.5+ Wins | 43¢ | 43.0% | — | $10.8K | 48.6% |
| 4.5+ Wins | 13¢ | 13.0% | -2.5 pts | $3.4K | 15.2% |
| 5.5+ Wins | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $3.9K | 17.3% |
| 6.5+ Wins | 4¢ | 4.5% | +1.1 pts | $2.5K | 11.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 89¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.2K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count even if the NCAA recognizes them as such. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NCAA Division 1 Football regular season is cancelled, postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NCAA and conference records (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 190 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthearted-Relation | Yes | 190 | $176 |
| Bold-Health | Yes | 137 | $127 |
| Chief-Plot | No | 69 | $5 |
| mskl | No | 50 | $4 |
| Smart-Cork | No | 50 | $4 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 41 | $3 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 29 | $2 |
| Gigantic-Popsicle-Walnut | No | 25 | $2 |
| Measly-Gelatin | Yes | 20 | $19 |
| Rotten-Raisin-Finger | No | 20 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $242 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.6% | $92 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $17 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2.5+ Wins at 92.5%. Next is 3.5+ Wins at 43.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ncaa-football-michigan-state-2026-win-total?via=bro
$22.2K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ncaa.com.
2.5+ Wins, priced at 92.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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