Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Netanyahu arrested by…?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:04 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 5.2% in Netanyahu arrested by…? — $31.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
5%
A 5.2% price implies roughly a 5-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.4 pts7D +0.9 pts30D +0.9 pts
Bid
4¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 20, 2026: 3.5% – 11.5% · Opened at 7.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Netanyahu arrested by…?
Category
UN, nyc, Trump, Israel, Zohran, Culture, Mamdani, New York, Politics, netanyahu, New York City, United Nations, Zohran Mamdani
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$31.5K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$8.8K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 5.2%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 5.2%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +0.9 pts; past month: +0.9 pts.

Since July 20, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.5% and 11.5%. It opened at 7.0% and last traded at 5.1%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 20266.1%
Oct 18, 20266.5%
Oct 19, 20266.9%
Oct 20, 20265.7%
Oct 23, 20264.9%
Oct 24, 20265.1%
Oct 24, 20265.1%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 5.2%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 315¢5.2%+0.4 pts$8.5K26.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$31.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,334 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Fragrant-FirewallNo1,334$1.3K
Unimportant-Jet-SoccerYes877$46
International-InterloperNo316$299
Thankful-Allegation-FahrenheitYes263$14
Straight-HuntingYes242$13
0xbb96d0ae…Yes241$13
Ordinary-DressYes200$11
Grim-GarageYes198$10
Belated-GlueYes159$8
Strange-DozenNo156$148

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $150 at 96.0%BUY No — $40 at 96.4%BUY No — $36 at 94.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 08:09 AM ETNoBUY94.2%$36
Oct 19, 09:02 AM ETYesBUY5.5%$1
Oct 19, 08:59 AM ETNoBUY94.6%$10
Oct 18, 05:15 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$18
Oct 18, 05:14 AM ETYesBUY5.9%$2
Oct 17, 09:11 PM ETNoSELL94.0%$4
Oct 17, 09:11 PM ETNoSELL94.0%$19
Oct 17, 09:11 PM ETYesBUY5.6%$1
Oct 17, 09:11 PM ETYesBUY5.6%$2
Oct 15, 11:51 PM ETYesBUY5.6%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Netanyahu arrested by…??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 5.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-arrested-by-20260720194516248?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Netanyahu arrested by…??

$31.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Netanyahu arrested by…? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Netanyahu arrested by…?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 5.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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