As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Labour Party at 51.5% in New Zealand Election: 2nd Place — $27.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Labour Party, is priced at 51.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +6.0 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, Labour Party has traded between 19.0% and 60.5%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 51.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 51.5% |
Labour Party is favored at 51.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 52¢ | 51.5% | — | $7.7K | 28.3% |
| National Party | 40¢ | 40.0% | -2.5 pts | $12.4K | 45.5% |
| Green Party | 2¢ | 1.8% | -2.6 pts | $2.0K | 7.5% |
| New Zealand First Party | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $1.7K | 6.4% |
| Te Pāti Māori | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.8K | 6.5% |
| ACT New Zealand | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.6K | 5.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 58¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.3K has been traded on this event in total, $704 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,390 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,390 | $674 |
| Jumpy-Athletics | Yes | 396 | $204 |
| Expert-Neuropathologist | Yes | 346 | $178 |
| Ignorant-Verdict | Yes | 212 | $109 |
| Black-And-White-Insert | No | 177 | $86 |
| Punctual-Hydrogen | Yes | 170 | $87 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 150 | $77 |
| Buzzing-Hypothermia | Yes | 110 | $56 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 75 | $39 |
| Deficient-Placebo | Yes | 53 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 41.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 06:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 58.0% | $41 |
| Oct 24, 06:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 46.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 10:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.6% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.7% | $26 |
| Oct 22, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $24 |
| Oct 22, 03:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Labour Party at 51.5%. Next is National Party at 40.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393?via=bro
$27.3K in total volume, with $704 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.
Labour Party, priced at 51.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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