As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Green Party at 82.5% in New Zealand Election: 3rd Place — $20.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Green Party, is priced at 82.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +6.0 pts; past month: +38.0 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, Green Party has traded between 17.5% and 84.5%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 82.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.5% |
Green Party is favored at 82.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 82¢ | 82.5% | -0.5 pts | $8.7K | 43.3% |
| New Zealand First Party | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $7.5K | 37.0% |
| ACT New Zealand | 6¢ | 6.4% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 5.4% |
| National Party | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $638 | 3.2% |
| Labour Party | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | 6.3% |
| Te Pāti Māori | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $955 | 4.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 930 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 930 | $163 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 892 | $736 |
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | No | 792 | $139 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | Yes | 447 | $368 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 364 | $64 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 280 | $231 |
| Ignorant-Verdict | Yes | 168 | $139 |
| Damaged-Bifocals | No | 150 | $26 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 101 | $83 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | Yes | 98 | $81 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 05:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 12:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.3% | $15 |
| Oct 20, 03:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 03:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $36 |
| Oct 20, 03:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $40 |
| Oct 19, 07:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 07:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Green Party at 82.5%. Next is New Zealand First Party at 13.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-3rd-place?via=bro
$20.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.
Green Party, priced at 82.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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