Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Green Party at 82.5% in New Zealand Election: 3rd Place — $20.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
Green Party
82%
A 82.5% price implies roughly a 82-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +6.0 pts30D +38.0 pts
Green Party82.5%
New Zealand First Party13.0%
Bid
80¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since April 30, 2026: 17.5% – 84.5% · Opened at 41.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
Category
Politics, Global Elections, NZ, Elections, New Zealand Election, International Election Props, New Zealand
Scheduled end
November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$20.1K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$75.6K
Markets
33
Leading outcome
Green Party — 82.5%
Resolution source
https://elections.nz/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Green Party, is priced at 82.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +6.0 pts; past month: +38.0 pts.

Since April 30, 2026, Green Party has traded between 17.5% and 84.5%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 82.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202661.0%
Oct 15, 202666.0%
Oct 16, 202676.0%
Oct 18, 202682.0%
Oct 19, 202684.5%
Oct 20, 202682.0%
Oct 24, 202682.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Green Party is favored at 82.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Green Party82¢82.5%-0.5 pts$8.7K43.3%
New Zealand First Party13¢13.0%—$7.5K37.0%
ACT New Zealand6¢6.4%+0.1 pts$1.1K5.4%
National Party0¢0.3%—$6383.2%
Labour Party0¢0.1%—$1.3K6.3%
Te Pāti Māori0¢0.1%—$9554.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$20.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Resolution source: https://elections.nz/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 930 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No930$163
Awesome-AvailabilityYes892$736
Fat-Fat-HourglassNo792$139
Immaterial-StalkYes447$368
Belated-GlueNo364$64
Monstrous-DewYes280$231
Ignorant-VerdictYes168$139
Damaged-BifocalsNo150$26
Direct-ChainstayYes101$83
Bumpy-ConscienceYes98$81

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $285 at 67.0%BUY No — $191 at 75.0%SELL Yes — $130 at 71.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 05:57 AM ETNoBUY16.0%$2
Oct 22, 05:57 AM ETNoBUY17.0%$2
Oct 22, 05:57 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$14
Oct 22, 05:57 AM ETNoBUY99.9%$15
Oct 22, 12:44 AM ETYesBUY85.3%$15
Oct 20, 03:58 PM ETNoBUY16.0%$6
Oct 20, 03:58 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$36
Oct 20, 03:58 PM ETNoBUY99.9%$40
Oct 19, 07:13 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$5
Oct 19, 07:40 AM ETNoSELL17.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of New Zealand Election: 3rd Place?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Green Party at 82.5%. Next is New Zealand First Party at 13.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-3rd-place?via=bro

How much money has been traded on New Zealand Election: 3rd Place?

$20.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.

When does New Zealand Election: 3rd Place end?

The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.

What is the most likely outcome of New Zealand Election: 3rd Place, according to Polymarket traders?

Green Party, priced at 82.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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