As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 76-78% at 41.0% in New Zealand Election: Turnout — $21.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 76-78%, is priced at 41.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: +8.0 pts; past month: +7.0 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, 76-78% has traded between 9.0% and 39.5%. It opened at 36.0% and last traded at 35.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 33.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 33.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 35.5% |
76-78% is favored at 41.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76-78% | 41¢ | 41.0% | +3.5 pts | $4.6K | 21.8% |
| 78-80% | 34¢ | 34.0% | — | $7.8K | 36.5% |
| 80-82% | 18¢ | 18.1% | -0.4 pts | $5.4K | 25.4% |
| 84%+ | 6¢ | 6.0% | +0.1 pts | $818 | 3.8% |
| <76% | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $1.0K | 4.9% |
| 82-84% | 2¢ | 2.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.6K | 7.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 16¢ (bid 33¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$21.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 797 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 797 | $470 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 236 | $97 |
| Quarterly-Locker | Yes | 200 | $82 |
| Offbeat-Injoke | Yes | 150 | $61 |
| Straight-Apprehension | No | 100 | $59 |
| Dizzy-Lemur | Yes | 95 | $39 |
| Known-Use | No | 92 | $55 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 80 | $33 |
| Immaterial-Secretariat | Yes | 50 | $20 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 50 | $20 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 08:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $11 |
| Oct 21, 08:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 07:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $17 |
| Oct 19, 06:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $17 |
| Oct 16, 11:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $24 |
| Oct 13, 05:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 36.0% | $10 |
| Oct 13, 12:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 36.0% | $15 |
| Oct 08, 02:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 36.0% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 01:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 36.0% | $4 |
| Oct 04, 02:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 76-78% at 41.0%. Next is 78-80% at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-turnout?via=bro
$21.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.
76-78%, priced at 41.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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