As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price National Party at 54.5% in New Zealand legislative election winner? — $94.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, National Party, is priced at 54.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +11.0 pts; past month: +11.0 pts.
Since April 29, 2026, National Party has traded between 25.0% and 55.5%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 55.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 55.5% |
National Party is favored at 54.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 55¢ | 54.5% | -1.0 pts | $36.5K | 38.8% |
| Labour Party | 43¢ | 43.0% | +2.5 pts | $27.9K | 29.7% |
| Green Party | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $7.1K | 7.5% |
| ACT New Zealand | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $6.9K | 7.4% |
| New Zealand First Party | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $8.6K | 9.2% |
| Te Pāti Māori | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $7.0K | 7.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$94.1K has been traded on this event in total, $214 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,173 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 8,173 | $3.7K |
| Hasty-Dog-Climate | Yes | 6,579 | $3.6K |
| Near-Familiar | No | 1,845 | $840 |
| Angry-Cork | Yes | 1,698 | $925 |
| Cuddly-Folder | Yes | 1,455 | $793 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 1,200 | $546 |
| Tense-Fort | Yes | 844 | $460 |
| Known-Use | No | 356 | $162 |
| Expert-Neuropathologist | Yes | 350 | $191 |
| Lonely-Bog | Yes | 335 | $183 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 42.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 11:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $70 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 07:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 42.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 58.0% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 06:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 58.0% | $28 |
| Oct 23, 01:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 12:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 06:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is National Party at 54.5%. Next is Labour Party at 43.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner?via=bro
$94.1K in total volume, with $214 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.
National Party, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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