Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 29.0% in Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...? — $12.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $304.
Leading outcome
October 31
29%
A 29.0% price implies roughly a 29-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −26.1 pts7D +6.3 pts30D −37.1 pts
Bid
16¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
26¢
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Range since August 14, 2026: 12.7% – 99.0% · Opened at 51.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?
Category
AI, Qwen, Tech, Alibaba, AI Releases, Recurring
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.4K
Volume (24h)
$304
Liquidity
$403
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 29.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 29.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -26.1 pts; past week: +6.3 pts; past month: -37.1 pts.

Since August 14, 2026, October 31 has traded between 12.7% and 99.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 55.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202646.5%
Oct 16, 202623.8%
Oct 18, 202618.4%
Oct 19, 202612.7%
Oct 20, 202621.8%
Oct 22, 202633.2%
Oct 23, 202655.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 29.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 3129¢29.0%-26.1 pts$9.4K75.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 26¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.4K has been traded on this event in total, $304 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 455 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Tangible-Exasperation-GritNo455$322
Forthright-SilkwormNo358$254
Third-Permission-ProtectionYes293$85
Fickle-Saxophone-AppetiteNo240$170
Gleaming-HandlebarNo210$149
Jubilant-CordYes205$60
Awesome-AvailabilityYes200$58
Deafening-CatcherYes156$45
Straight-WrinkleNo145$103
Palatable-HoleYes144$42

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $150 at 51.2%BUY Yes — $80 at 27.4%BUY No — $61 at 87.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:27 PM ETNoBUY63.0%$3
Oct 24, 08:54 AM ETYesSELL25.9%$57
Oct 24, 08:25 AM ETNoBUY51.2%$4
Oct 24, 08:25 AM ETYesSELL49.9%$36
Oct 23, 04:49 PM ETNoBUY46.6%$9
Oct 23, 12:04 PM ETYesBUY60.0%$3
Oct 23, 10:57 AM ETNoSELL45.0%$9
Oct 23, 05:53 AM ETYesBUY60.0%$3
Oct 23, 02:23 AM ETYesBUY51.2%$150
Oct 23, 01:31 AM ETYesBUY40.0%$9

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 29.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-max-3pt9-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...??

$12.4K in total volume, with $304 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 29.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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