As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 29.0% in Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...? — $12.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 29.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -26.1 pts; past week: +6.3 pts; past month: -37.1 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, October 31 has traded between 12.7% and 99.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 23.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 18.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 12.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 33.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 55.0% |
October 31 is favored at 29.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 29¢ | 29.0% | -26.1 pts | $9.4K | 75.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 26¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.4K has been traded on this event in total, $304 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 455 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tangible-Exasperation-Grit | No | 455 | $322 |
| Forthright-Silkworm | No | 358 | $254 |
| Third-Permission-Protection | Yes | 293 | $85 |
| Fickle-Saxophone-Appetite | No | 240 | $170 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 210 | $149 |
| Jubilant-Cord | Yes | 205 | $60 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 200 | $58 |
| Deafening-Catcher | Yes | 156 | $45 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 145 | $103 |
| Palatable-Hole | Yes | 144 | $42 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.9% | $57 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 51.2% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 49.9% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 04:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.6% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 12:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 10:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 05:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 02:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.2% | $150 |
| Oct 23, 01:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 29.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-max-3pt9-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$12.4K in total volume, with $304 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 29.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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