As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 85.5% in Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by...? — $11.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +21.0 pts; past month: +56.0 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, December 31 has traded between 28.0% and 90.0%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.5% |
December 31 is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 86¢ | 85.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.2K | 10.3% |
| October 31 | 26¢ | 26.5% | -0.5 pts | $580 | 4.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.8K has been traded on this event in total, $4 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 183 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrious-Squeegee | Yes | 183 | $157 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 157 | $23 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 40 | $34 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 20 | $3 |
| Zealous-Vegetarian | No | 20 | $3 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 12 | $2 |
| Scaly-Assault-Alarm | No | 7 | $1 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | No | 5 | $1 |
| Jam-Packed-Blogger | Yes | 2 | $2 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 2 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 91.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 09:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 09:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 01:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 20, 01:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 20, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.3% | $16 |
| Oct 20, 11:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 85.5%. Next is October 31 at 26.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-plus-3pt8-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$11.8K in total volume, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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