As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 64.0% in Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028? — $124.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Next Chancellor before 2028, is priced at 64.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +13.5 pts; past month: +10.5 pts.
Since September 15, 2026, No Next Chancellor before 2028 has traded between 44.5% and 68.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 63.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 63.5% |
No Next Chancellor before 2028 is favored at 64.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 64¢ | 64.0% | +0.5 pts | $99.9K | 80.4% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AA | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AB | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AC | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AD | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AE | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AF | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AG | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AH | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AI | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AJ | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AK | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AL | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AM | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AN | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AO | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AP | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AQ | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AR | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AS | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AT | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AU | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AV | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AW | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AX | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AY | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AZ | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Hendrik Wüst | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $8.7K | 7.0% |
| Alice Weidel | 9¢ | 8.6% | +0.3 pts | $2.2K | 1.8% |
| Boris Pistorius | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $2.2K | 1.8% |
| Markus Söder | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $4.0K | 3.2% |
| Lars Klingbeil | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $1.3K | 1.0% |
| Carsten Linnemann | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $1.2K | 0.9% |
| Felix Banaszak | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $1.2K | 1.0% |
| Jens Spahn | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $529 | 0.4% |
| Tino Chrupalla | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $653 | 0.5% |
| Katharina Dröge | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $728 | 0.6% |
| Heidi Reichinnek | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $874 | 0.7% |
| Sahra Wagenknecht | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $784 | 0.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$124.2K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 66 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,947 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common-Nitrogen | Yes | 4,947 | $3.2K |
| Wobbly-Pants | No | 3,474 | $1.3K |
| Few-Poppy | Yes | 1,686 | $1.1K |
| Blaring-Surge | Yes | 1,312 | $840 |
| Natural-Vacation | Yes | 1,286 | $823 |
| Understated-Patient | No | 1,200 | $432 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,177 | $424 |
| Intrepid-Flesh-Subexpression | No | 1,133 | $408 |
| Weird-Freedom | Yes | 1,000 | $640 |
| Known-Use | No | 981 | $353 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $60 |
| Oct 23, 11:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 03:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 35.0% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 11:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 07:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 07:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $13 |
| Oct 21, 06:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $11 |
| Oct 20, 08:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $26 |
| Oct 20, 01:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $40 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 64.0%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028-before-2028?via=bro
$124.2K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 66 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No Next Chancellor before 2028, priced at 64.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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