As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 50%+ at 91.0% in Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut? — $13.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 50%+, is priced at 91.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts.
50%+ is favored at 91.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 91¢ | 91.0% | -5.5 pts | $1.0K | 7.6% |
| 55%+ | 80¢ | 80.5% | -3.0 pts | $4.6K | 34.0% |
| 60%+ | 62¢ | 62.0% | +17.0 pts | $6.0K | 44.1% |
| 65%+ | 20¢ | 20.0% | +3.5 pts | $1.9K | 14.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 89¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.5K has been traded on this event in total, $2.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 300 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand-Spleen | Yes | 300 | $273 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 191 | $17 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 92 | $8 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | No | 20 | $2 |
| Brief-Creditor | Yes | 10 | $9 |
| Evil-Row | No | 4 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $83 |
| Oct 24, 04:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 04:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 19.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 12:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 26.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 50%+ at 91.0%. Next is 55%+ at 80.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-5pt6-hle-diamond-debut?via=bro
$13.5K in total volume, with $2.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.
50%+, priced at 91.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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