Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 50%+ at 91.0% in Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut? — $13.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.9K.
Leading outcome
50%+
91%
A 91.0% price implies roughly a 91-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −5.5 pts
50%+91.0%
55%+80.5%
Bid
89¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
4¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut?
Category
AI, Tech, Claude, Anthropic, Recurring, AI Releases, Claude Opus, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$13.5K
Volume (24h)
$2.9K
Liquidity
$5.8K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
50%+ — 91.0%
Resolution source
https://agi.safe.ai/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 50%+, is priced at 91.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

50%+ is favored at 91.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
50%+91¢91.0%-5.5 pts$1.0K7.6%
55%+80¢80.5%-3.0 pts$4.6K34.0%
60%+62¢62.0%+17.0 pts$6.0K44.1%
65%+20¢20.0%+3.5 pts$1.9K14.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 89¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$13.5K has been traded on this event in total, $2.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 300 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Grand-SpleenYes300$273
Belated-GlueNo191$17
Perfumed-MoatNo92$8
Rowdy-TenementNo20$2
Brief-CreditorYes10$9
Evil-RowNo4$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $1.3K at 79.0%SELL Yes — $781 at 88.3%BUY Yes — $197 at 80.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:01 PM ETNoBUY28.0%$83
Oct 24, 04:54 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$4
Oct 24, 04:54 PM ETNoSELL78.0%$39
Oct 24, 04:44 PM ETYesSELL19.0%$4
Oct 24, 01:55 PM ETNoSELL19.0%$2
Oct 24, 01:45 PM ETYesBUY23.0%$2
Oct 24, 01:45 PM ETYesBUY23.0%$12
Oct 24, 12:29 PM ETNoBUY27.0%$3
Oct 24, 10:45 AM ETNoSELL18.0%$0
Oct 24, 10:00 AM ETNoSELL26.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 50%+ at 91.0%. Next is 55%+ at 80.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-5pt6-hle-diamond-debut?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut??

$13.5K in total volume, with $2.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

50%+, priced at 91.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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