Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1510+ at 86.5% in Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut? — $10.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $772.
Leading outcome
1510+
86%
A 86.5% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +6.0 pts7D +4.0 pts
1510+86.5%
1520+61.5%
Bid
85¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 28, 2026: 48.0% – 87.0% · Opened at 61.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?
Category
AI, Tech, Debut, Claude, Anthropic, Recurring, AI Releases, Claude Opus
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$10.8K
Volume (24h)
$772
Liquidity
$2.6K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
1510+ — 86.5%
Resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 1510+, is priced at 86.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.

Since September 28, 2026, 1510+ has traded between 48.0% and 87.0%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 81.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202678.0%
Oct 17, 202682.5%
Oct 18, 202684.0%
Oct 19, 202682.0%
Oct 20, 202682.0%
Oct 22, 202682.0%
Oct 23, 202681.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

1510+ is favored at 86.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
1510+86¢86.5%+6.0 pts$2.0K18.9%
1520+62¢61.5%-2.5 pts$1.5K14.2%
1530+29¢29.0%-6.5 pts$3.5K32.5%
1540+16¢16.0%-3.5 pts$2.7K24.8%
1550+16¢15.5%-3.5 pts$1.0K9.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$10.8K has been traded on this event in total, $772 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 216 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo216$29
Modern-OverloadYes200$173
Writhing-HalibutYes97$84
Hasty-RowboatYes70$61
Direct-ChainstayYes69$60
Snappy-RoosterNo58$8
Reflecting-PantologyNo56$8
Cheerful-NucleotidaseYes53$46
Empty-AnnualNo50$7
Required-HornNo50$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $164 at 82.0%BUY No — $141 at 75.0%BUY No — $124 at 66.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:39 AM ETNoBUY16.0%$5
Oct 24, 07:23 AM ETNoSELL81.0%$1
Oct 24, 06:40 AM ETNoSELL80.0%$14
Oct 24, 06:39 AM ETYesBUY21.0%$4
Oct 24, 06:39 AM ETYesBUY18.0%$7
Oct 24, 05:23 AM ETNoSELL17.0%$7
Oct 24, 05:20 AM ETNoSELL12.0%$0
Oct 24, 05:20 AM ETYesBUY83.0%$30
Oct 24, 05:20 AM ETYesBUY82.0%$33
Oct 24, 05:20 AM ETYesBUY82.0%$164

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1510+ at 86.5%. Next is 1520+ at 61.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-5pt6-text-arena-debut-20260928?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut??

$10.8K in total volume, with $772 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

1510+, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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