As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1510+ at 86.5% in Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut? — $10.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1510+, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, 1510+ has traded between 48.0% and 87.0%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 81.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 81.5% |
1510+ is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1510+ | 86¢ | 86.5% | +6.0 pts | $2.0K | 18.9% |
| 1520+ | 62¢ | 61.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.5K | 14.2% |
| 1530+ | 29¢ | 29.0% | -6.5 pts | $3.5K | 32.5% |
| 1540+ | 16¢ | 16.0% | -3.5 pts | $2.7K | 24.8% |
| 1550+ | 16¢ | 15.5% | -3.5 pts | $1.0K | 9.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.8K has been traded on this event in total, $772 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 216 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 216 | $29 |
| Modern-Overload | Yes | 200 | $173 |
| Writhing-Halibut | Yes | 97 | $84 |
| Hasty-Rowboat | Yes | 70 | $61 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 69 | $60 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 58 | $8 |
| Reflecting-Pantology | No | 56 | $8 |
| Cheerful-Nucleotidase | Yes | 53 | $46 |
| Empty-Annual | No | 50 | $7 |
| Required-Horn | No | 50 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 07:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 05:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 05:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 12.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 05:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 82.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 05:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 82.0% | $164 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1510+ at 86.5%. Next is 1520+ at 61.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-5pt6-text-arena-debut-20260928?via=bro
$10.8K in total volume, with $772 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
1510+, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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