Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 89.5% in Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...? — $12.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $60.
Leading outcome
December 31
90%
A 89.5% price implies roughly a 90-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −5.0 pts30D +3.0 pts
December 3189.5%
November 3056.0%
Bid
88¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 24, 2026: 77.5% – 94.5% · Opened at 86.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Claude, Anthropic, Recurring, AI Releases, Claude Opus
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.1K
Volume (24h)
$60
Liquidity
$1.0K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 89.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 89.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -5.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.

Since September 24, 2026, December 31 has traded between 77.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 90.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202694.5%
Oct 17, 202694.5%
Oct 18, 202678.0%
Oct 19, 202682.0%
Oct 20, 202682.5%
Oct 22, 202691.5%
Oct 23, 202690.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 89.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3190¢89.5%-0.5 pts$2.5K20.3%
November 3056¢56.0%+0.5 pts$7.3K60.5%
October 315¢5.0%—$2.3K19.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.1K has been traded on this event in total, $60 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 277 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo277$29
Sore-PitchingYes224$200
Gleaming-HandlebarNo160$17
Heartfelt-EyrieYes80$72
Deep-LoginYes80$72
Sandy-WifeYes75$67
0xa9c2c58e…Yes62$55
Extra-Small-ToqueYes46$42
Curvy-AccessoryYes41$37
Original-Anything-PetitionNo33$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $148 at 89.1%SELL Yes — $84 at 91.9%BUY No — $80 at 33.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:37 AM ETNoBUY41.0%$16
Oct 24, 01:20 AM ETYesBUY55.0%$6
Oct 23, 10:25 PM ETNoBUY51.0%$5
Oct 23, 03:57 PM ETNoBUY36.0%$7
Oct 23, 03:51 PM ETYesBUY46.0%$9
Oct 23, 09:35 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$2
Oct 23, 06:58 AM ETYesBUY51.0%$10
Oct 22, 10:14 PM ETNoBUY45.0%$9
Oct 22, 09:59 PM ETNoSELL54.0%$11
Oct 22, 07:59 PM ETNoSELL56.0%$11

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 89.5%. Next is November 30 at 56.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260923144500000?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...??

$12.1K in total volume, with $60 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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