As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 89.5% in Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...? — $12.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -5.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, December 31 has traded between 77.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 90.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.0% |
December 31 is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 90¢ | 89.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.5K | 20.3% |
| November 30 | 56¢ | 56.0% | +0.5 pts | $7.3K | 60.5% |
| October 31 | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $2.3K | 19.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.1K has been traded on this event in total, $60 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 277 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 277 | $29 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 224 | $200 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 160 | $17 |
| Heartfelt-Eyrie | Yes | 80 | $72 |
| Deep-Login | Yes | 80 | $72 |
| Sandy-Wife | Yes | 75 | $67 |
| 0xa9c2c58e… | Yes | 62 | $55 |
| Extra-Small-Toque | Yes | 46 | $42 |
| Curvy-Accessory | Yes | 41 | $37 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | No | 33 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 55.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 10:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 03:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 10:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 09:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 07:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 56.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 89.5%. Next is November 30 at 56.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260923144500000?via=bro
$12.1K in total volume, with $60 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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