Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 57.5% in Next DeepSeek Flash released by...? — $1.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $687.
Leading outcome
December 31
57%
A 57.5% price implies roughly a 57-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +22.5 pts
December 3157.5%
November 3032.0%
Bid
50¢
Ask
65¢
Spread
15¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 23, 2026: 35.0% – 57.5% · Opened at 35.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, DeepSeek, Recurring, AI Releases
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.4K
Volume (24h)
$687
Liquidity
$362
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 57.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 57.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +22.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, December 31 has traded between 35.0% and 57.5%. It opened at 35.0% and last traded at 57.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 57.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3157¢57.5%+22.5 pts$1.1K77.6%
November 3032¢32.0%+4.5 pts$30522.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 15¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.4K has been traded on this event in total, $687 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.2-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro, DeepSeek-OCR, or DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp, Pro-tier models such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 or DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, and the existing DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017 (released October 17, 2026), including any open-weight re-release, snapshot, or re-pointing of the deepseek-flash API alias to it, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model name or date designation, even if it is served through an unchanged API alias such as deepseek-flash; updates published without a new model name or date designation will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 413 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sore-PitchingYes413$237
Close-Fitness-NightclubNo141$60
Belated-GlueNo141$60
Composed-InfixYes60$34
Remarkable-UnderpassNo53$22
Putrid-LabYes40$23
Bossy-Birdcage-PeriodNo40$17
Creamy-GeologyNo40$17
Young-Saw-WildlifeYes20$12
Embarrassed-Hill-FoldNo20$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $150 at 36.3%BUY No — $43 at 71.0%BUY No — $42 at 70.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:39 PM ETNoBUY36.0%$11
Oct 24, 01:27 PM ETNoSELL29.0%$3
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETYesBUY25.0%$5
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 24, 12:23 PM ETYesSELL29.0%$6
Oct 24, 12:23 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$43
Oct 24, 11:21 AM ETYesBUY57.0%$6
Oct 24, 10:36 AM ETYesBUY46.0%$18
Oct 24, 07:26 AM ETNoSELL55.0%$11
Oct 24, 07:26 AM ETYesBUY36.3%$150

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next DeepSeek Flash released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 57.5%. Next is November 30 at 32.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-deepseek-flash-released-byptptpt-20261021-02?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next DeepSeek Flash released by...??

$1.4K in total volume, with $687 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next DeepSeek Flash released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 57.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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