As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 57.5% in Next DeepSeek Flash released by...? — $1.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 57.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +22.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, December 31 has traded between 35.0% and 57.5%. It opened at 35.0% and last traded at 57.5%.
December 31 is favored at 57.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 57¢ | 57.5% | +22.5 pts | $1.1K | 77.6% |
| November 30 | 32¢ | 32.0% | +4.5 pts | $305 | 22.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 15¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.4K has been traded on this event in total, $687 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.2-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro, DeepSeek-OCR, or DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp, Pro-tier models such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 or DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, and the existing DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017 (released October 17, 2026), including any open-weight re-release, snapshot, or re-pointing of the deepseek-flash API alias to it, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model name or date designation, even if it is served through an unchanged API alias such as deepseek-flash; updates published without a new model name or date designation will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 413 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 413 | $237 |
| Close-Fitness-Nightclub | No | 141 | $60 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 141 | $60 |
| Composed-Infix | Yes | 60 | $34 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 53 | $22 |
| Putrid-Lab | Yes | 40 | $23 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 40 | $17 |
| Creamy-Geology | No | 40 | $17 |
| Young-Saw-Wildlife | Yes | 20 | $12 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 20 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 01:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 29.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:23 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $43 |
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 10:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 07:26 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 07:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.3% | $150 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 57.5%. Next is November 30 at 32.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-deepseek-flash-released-byptptpt-20261021-02?via=bro
$1.4K in total volume, with $687 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 57.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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