Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1500+ at 92.6% in Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? — $63.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $690.
Leading outcome
1500+
93%
A 92.6% price implies roughly a 93-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.7 pts7D +0.9 pts
1500+92.6%
1510+79.0%
Bid
92¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 29, 2026: 73.5% – 96.2% · Opened at 73.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
Category
AI, Tech, Debut, Fable, Claude, Anthropic, AI Releases, Claude Mythos
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$63.4K
Volume (24h)
$690
Liquidity
$25.3K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
1500+ — 92.6%
Resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 1500+, is priced at 92.6%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: +0.9 pts.

Since September 29, 2026, 1500+ has traded between 73.5% and 96.2%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 92.9%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202689.5%
Oct 16, 202696.2%
Oct 18, 202691.8%
Oct 19, 202691.7%
Oct 20, 202695.9%
Oct 22, 202694.5%
Oct 23, 202692.9%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

1500+ is favored at 92.6%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
1500+93¢92.6%-0.7 pts$8.8K14.0%
1510+79¢79.0%—$20.9K33.0%
1520+55¢54.5%-1.5 pts$11.7K18.4%
1530+36¢35.5%+1.0 pts$14.7K23.2%
1540+16¢16.0%-3.0 pts$7.2K11.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$63.4K has been traded on this event in total, $690 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,239 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Impartial-HarmonizeNo1,239$92
Free-SlangYes576$533
Palatable-AvalancheYes500$463
Accomplished-RefrigeratorYes429$398
Belated-GlueNo209$15
Grim-GarageNo204$15
Known-UseYes186$172
Half-LeadingYes121$112
Rubbery-HarvesterYes104$96
Stale-CashewNo75$6

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $620 at 62.0%SELL No — $238 at 61.0%BUY Yes — $170 at 85.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:39 PM ETYesBUY79.0%$40
Oct 24, 05:12 PM ETNoSELL44.0%$35
Oct 24, 05:09 PM ETYesSELL52.0%$1
Oct 24, 05:05 PM ETNoSELL20.0%$0
Oct 24, 05:05 PM ETNoSELL44.0%$0
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETYesSELL51.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETYesSELL52.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETNoSELL44.0%$0
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETNoBUY48.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETNoBUY48.0%$10

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1500+ at 92.6%. Next is 1510+ at 79.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-text-arena-debut-20260928?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut??

$63.4K in total volume, with $690 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

1500+, priced at 92.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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