As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1500+ at 92.6% in Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? — $63.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1500+, is priced at 92.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: +0.9 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, 1500+ has traded between 73.5% and 96.2%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 92.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.9% |
1500+ is favored at 92.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1500+ | 93¢ | 92.6% | -0.7 pts | $8.8K | 14.0% |
| 1510+ | 79¢ | 79.0% | — | $20.9K | 33.0% |
| 1520+ | 55¢ | 54.5% | -1.5 pts | $11.7K | 18.4% |
| 1530+ | 36¢ | 35.5% | +1.0 pts | $14.7K | 23.2% |
| 1540+ | 16¢ | 16.0% | -3.0 pts | $7.2K | 11.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$63.4K has been traded on this event in total, $690 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,239 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impartial-Harmonize | No | 1,239 | $92 |
| Free-Slang | Yes | 576 | $533 |
| Palatable-Avalanche | Yes | 500 | $463 |
| Accomplished-Refrigerator | Yes | 429 | $398 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 209 | $15 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 204 | $15 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 186 | $172 |
| Half-Leading | Yes | 121 | $112 |
| Rubbery-Harvester | Yes | 104 | $96 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 75 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 44.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 05:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 44.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 44.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 48.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 48.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1500+ at 92.6%. Next is 1510+ at 79.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-text-arena-debut-20260928?via=bro
$63.4K in total volume, with $690 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
1500+, priced at 92.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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