As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Marine Le Pen at 85.5% in Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? — $446.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Marine Le Pen, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since June 01, 2026, Marine Le Pen has traded between 11.0% and 91.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.5% |
Marine Le Pen is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 86¢ | 85.5% | -0.5 pts | $26.0K | 5.8% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 43¢ | 43.0% | -0.5 pts | $25.4K | 5.7% |
| Édouard Philippe | 35¢ | 35.0% | -2.5 pts | $11.0K | 2.5% |
| Other | 32¢ | 32.5% | +0.5 pts | $112 | 0.0% |
| David Lisnard | 15¢ | 14.8% | -0.1 pts | $197.4K | 44.2% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11¢ | 10.5% | -0.9 pts | $11.6K | 2.6% |
| Gabriel Attal | 8¢ | 8.1% | +2.8 pts | $7.8K | 1.7% |
| Jordan Bardella | 8¢ | 7.5% | +1.5 pts | $24.6K | 5.5% |
| François Ruffin | 7¢ | 6.6% | +0.1 pts | $8.3K | 1.9% |
| François Hollande | 6¢ | 6.2% | +0.4 pts | $17.4K | 3.9% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 6¢ | 6.2% | -2.5 pts | $3.1K | 0.7% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6¢ | 5.9% | — | $4.1K | 0.9% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $2.1K | 0.5% |
| François Asselineau | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K | 0.4% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $742 | 0.2% |
| Manuel Bompard | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $7.3K | 1.6% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 4¢ | 3.7% | — | $5.8K | 1.3% |
| Juan Branco | 4¢ | 3.6% | -0.5 pts | $4.7K | 1.1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 3¢ | 3.3% | — | $8.3K | 1.9% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.5 pts | $2.1K | 0.5% |
| Sarah Knafo | 3¢ | 3.2% | -1.5 pts | $6.1K | 1.4% |
| Jean Castex | 3¢ | 3.0% | +1.8 pts | $3.4K | 0.8% |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3¢ | 2.9% | -1.2 pts | $2.8K | 0.6% |
| François Bayrou | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.5 pts | $4.4K | 1.0% |
| Ségolène Royal | 3¢ | 2.7% | -1.2 pts | $5.9K | 1.3% |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 3¢ | 2.6% | -1.5 pts | $4.5K | 1.0% |
| Clémence Guetté | 3¢ | 2.6% | -0.1 pts | $3.3K | 0.7% |
| Mathilde Panot | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $1.9K | 0.4% |
| Clémentine Autain | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $6.0K | 1.3% |
| Carole Delga | 2¢ | 2.4% | — | $11.3K | 2.5% |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $921 | 0.2% |
| Élisabeth Borne | 2¢ | 2.2% | -1.5 pts | $6.6K | 1.5% |
| Marine Tondelier | 2¢ | 1.9% | — | $5.2K | 1.2% |
| Xavier Bertrand | 1¢ | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.6K | 0.3% |
| Olivier Faure | 1¢ | 1.4% | +0.9 pts | $6.1K | 1.4% |
| Michel Barnier | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $3.3K | 0.7% |
| Valérie Pécresse | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $3.2K | 0.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 84¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$446.3K has been traded on this event in total, $12.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolution source: https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,161 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prickly-Signup | Yes | 6,161 | $5.3K |
| Demanding-Stealth | No | 2,606 | $378 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 2,000 | $290 |
| Cheery-Preparation | Yes | 2,000 | $1.7K |
| High-Level-Precedence | No | 1,822 | $264 |
| Early-Dwelling | No | 832 | $121 |
| Stupendous-Absence | No | 771 | $112 |
| Capital-Eviction | No | 759 | $110 |
| Strange-Icicle | Yes | 743 | $635 |
| Narrow-Normalisation-Fisherman | Yes | 654 | $559 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $420 |
| Oct 24, 09:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.9% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 09:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.9% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 09:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.8% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 09:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 15.9% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 08:09 AM ET | No | SELL | 12.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 87.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 05:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 41.0% | $77 |
| Oct 24, 03:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.4% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 85.5%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 43.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round?via=bro
$446.3K in total volume, with $12.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/.
Marine Le Pen, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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