Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 70.5% in Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...? — $13.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $7.
Leading outcome
November 30
70%
A 70.5% price implies roughly a 70-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts7D −15.0 pts30D −23.5 pts
November 3070.5%
October 313.9%
Bid
70¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 03, 2026: 45.0% – 95.5% · Opened at 53.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Gemini, google, AI Releases, Gemini Flash, Recurring
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$13.2K
Volume (24h)
$7
Liquidity
$1.2K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 70.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 70.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -15.0 pts; past month: -23.5 pts.

Since September 03, 2026, November 30 has traded between 45.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 53.0% and last traded at 70.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202683.0%
Oct 17, 202685.5%
Oct 18, 202675.5%
Oct 19, 202676.0%
Oct 20, 202676.0%
Oct 22, 202672.5%
Oct 23, 202670.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 70.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3070¢70.5%+0.5 pts$6.3K48.2%
October 314¢3.9%-0.2 pts$4.6K35.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$13.2K has been traded on this event in total, $7 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,686 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Golden-UnemploymentYes2,686$1.9K
Somber-IceNo2,304$680
Impartial-HarmonizeNo747$220
Pretty-SaxophoneYes320$226
Silver-Eyebrows-InstructionNo208$61
Attached-Example-AnesthesiologistYes166$117
Novel-BeanieYes109$77
Direct-ChainstayNo108$32
Decisive-SpokeswomanYes90$63
Belated-GlueNo81$24

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $106 at 73.2%BUY Yes — $93 at 85.0%BUY No — $76 at 26.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesBUY72.0%$5
Oct 23, 08:58 AM ETNoSELL32.0%$5
Oct 23, 03:25 AM ETNoSELL26.0%$4
Oct 22, 11:55 PM ETYesBUY70.0%$30
Oct 22, 11:37 PM ETYesBUY70.0%$14
Oct 22, 11:37 PM ETNoSELL31.0%$9
Oct 22, 11:37 PM ETYesBUY70.0%$7
Oct 22, 11:37 PM ETYesBUY68.0%$20
Oct 21, 08:33 PM ETYesSELL2.0%$0
Oct 21, 08:33 PM ETYesSELL2.1%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 70.5%. Next is October 31 at 3.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt9-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...??

$13.2K in total volume, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 70.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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