As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 70.5% in Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...? — $13.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 70.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -15.0 pts; past month: -23.5 pts.
Since September 03, 2026, November 30 has traded between 45.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 53.0% and last traded at 70.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 70.0% |
November 30 is favored at 70.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 70¢ | 70.5% | +0.5 pts | $6.3K | 48.2% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.2 pts | $4.6K | 35.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.2K has been traded on this event in total, $7 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,686 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 2,686 | $1.9K |
| Somber-Ice | No | 2,304 | $680 |
| Impartial-Harmonize | No | 747 | $220 |
| Pretty-Saxophone | Yes | 320 | $226 |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | No | 208 | $61 |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | Yes | 166 | $117 |
| Novel-Beanie | Yes | 109 | $77 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 108 | $32 |
| Decisive-Spokeswoman | Yes | 90 | $63 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 81 | $24 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 72.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:25 AM ET | No | SELL | 26.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 11:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 70.0% | $30 |
| Oct 22, 11:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 70.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 11:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 11:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 70.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 11:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 08:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 08:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 70.5%. Next is October 31 at 3.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt9-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$13.2K in total volume, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 70.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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