As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No release by October 31 at 95.5% in Next Gemini Pro Model released on...? — $127.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No release by October 31, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.7 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +72.0 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, No release by October 31 has traded between 15.5% and 97.3%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 95.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.7% |
No release by October 31 is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by October 31 | 96¢ | 95.5% | -1.7 pts | $90.9K | 71.4% |
| October 27 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $1.3K | 1.0% |
| October 30 | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $1.4K | 1.1% |
| October 24 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $378 | 0.3% |
| October 26 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $1.1K | 0.9% |
| October 28 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $860 | 0.7% |
| October 29 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $723 | 0.6% |
| October 25 | 0¢ | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $985 | 0.8% |
| October 31 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | 0.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$127.3K has been traded on this event in total, $1 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,266 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 6,266 | $6.0K |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings | No | 3,380 | $150 |
| Loving-Inglenook | No | 3,000 | $133 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 2,404 | $2.3K |
| Enraged-Schnitzel | No | 2,049 | $91 |
| Sparse-Cosset | Yes | 1,622 | $1.5K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,345 | $60 |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | No | 1,276 | $57 |
| Broken-Hermit | Yes | 1,204 | $1.2K |
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 1,004 | $959 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.4% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 12:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 3.6% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 3.4% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.5% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 12:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:28 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.7% | $82 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 95.5%. Next is October 27 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260922131618444?via=bro
$127.3K in total volume, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
No release by October 31, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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