Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 53.5% in Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...? — $10.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $33.
Leading outcome
November 30
54%
A 53.5% price implies roughly a 54-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.5 pts7D −2.5 pts30D −41.5 pts
November 3053.5%
October 318.9%
Bid
38¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
31¢
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Range since August 14, 2026: 37.5% – 95.5% · Opened at 67.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Gemini, google, AI Releases, Gemini Flash-Lite, Recurring
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$10.8K
Volume (24h)
$33
Liquidity
$538
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 53.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 53.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -41.5 pts.

Since August 14, 2026, November 30 has traded between 37.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 67.0% and last traded at 53.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202654.5%
Oct 16, 202650.5%
Oct 18, 202655.0%
Oct 19, 202655.0%
Oct 20, 202650.0%
Oct 23, 202656.0%
Oct 24, 202653.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 53.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3054¢53.5%-2.5 pts$3.8K35.6%
October 319¢8.9%+1.5 pts$1.0K9.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 31¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$10.8K has been traded on this event in total, $33 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 538 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Piercing-FormationYes538$288
This-WiretapNo258$120
Somber-IceNo110$51
Belated-GlueYes85$45
Wry-Friction-BanquetteNo80$37
Silver-Eyebrows-InstructionNo80$37
Candid-DiscrepancyYes60$32
Weepy-JoyYes50$27
Oddball-PoisonNo40$19
Evil-RowNo40$19

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $115 at 71.8%BUY No — $39 at 63.0%BUY Yes — $37 at 90.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:57 AM ETYesBUY4.9%$2
Oct 23, 04:22 AM ETNoBUY97.1%$24
Oct 21, 04:14 PM ETYesBUY50.0%$10
Oct 20, 12:16 AM ETYesBUY49.0%$10
Oct 19, 11:31 PM ETYesSELL51.0%$10
Oct 19, 03:19 AM ETYesBUY46.0%$9
Oct 19, 03:17 AM ETNoBUY49.0%$20
Oct 17, 10:38 AM ETNoBUY44.0%$18
Oct 16, 03:48 AM ETYesBUY48.0%$10
Oct 15, 01:54 PM ETNoBUY34.0%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 53.5%. Next is October 31 at 8.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-flash-lite-model-3pt6-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...??

$10.8K in total volume, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 53.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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