As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 53.5% in Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...? — $10.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 53.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -41.5 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, November 30 has traded between 37.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 67.0% and last traded at 53.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.5% |
November 30 is favored at 53.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 54¢ | 53.5% | -2.5 pts | $3.8K | 35.6% |
| October 31 | 9¢ | 8.9% | +1.5 pts | $1.0K | 9.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 31¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.8K has been traded on this event in total, $33 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 538 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 538 | $288 |
| This-Wiretap | No | 258 | $120 |
| Somber-Ice | No | 110 | $51 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 85 | $45 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | No | 80 | $37 |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | No | 80 | $37 |
| Candid-Discrepancy | Yes | 60 | $32 |
| Weepy-Joy | Yes | 50 | $27 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 40 | $19 |
| Evil-Row | No | 40 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.9% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $24 |
| Oct 21, 04:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 12:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 19, 11:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 19, 03:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $9 |
| Oct 19, 03:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 49.0% | $20 |
| Oct 17, 10:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $18 |
| Oct 16, 03:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $10 |
| Oct 15, 01:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 53.5%. Next is October 31 at 8.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-flash-lite-model-3pt6-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$10.8K in total volume, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 53.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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