As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 50%+ at 27.0% in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? — $115.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 50%+, is priced at 27.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +5.0 pts; past month: -53.5 pts.
Since July 29, 2026, 50%+ has traded between 13.5% and 91.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 24.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 24.5% |
50%+ is favored at 27.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 27¢ | 27.0% | +2.5 pts | $42.1K | 36.4% |
| 40%+ | 26¢ | 25.8% | +0.1 pts | $16.6K | 14.3% |
| 45%+ | 25¢ | 25.0% | -1.0 pts | $20.8K | 18.0% |
| 55%+ | 11¢ | 11.0% | -2.5 pts | $36.2K | 31.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 25¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$115.7K has been traded on this event in total, $646 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,836 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | Yes | 2,836 | $766 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 1,101 | $804 |
| Mundane-Comradeship | No | 328 | $239 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 318 | $232 |
| Known-Use | No | 265 | $193 |
| 0x8bb1ac82… | Yes | 229 | $62 |
| Weak-Threshold | No | 188 | $137 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 176 | $47 |
| These-Dramaturge-Detail | No | 170 | $124 |
| Prudent-Realization-Farrow | No | 165 | $120 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 07:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 07:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 07:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.2% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 11:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 10:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 09:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.1% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 09:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 50%+ at 27.0%. Next is 40%+ at 25.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20260729192434644?via=bro
$115.7K in total volume, with $646 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.
50%+, priced at 27.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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