Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 18.0% in Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — $1.66M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $159.
Leading outcome
December 31
18%
A 18.0% price implies roughly a 18-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.5 pts7D −14.5 pts
December 3118.0%
November 308.5%
Bid
15¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
6¢
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Range since October 02, 2026: 16.5% – 67.5% · Opened at 46.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Gemini, google, AI Releases, Gemini Pro
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.66M
Volume (24h)
$159
Liquidity
$3.6K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 18.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 18.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -14.5 pts.

Since October 02, 2026, December 31 has traded between 16.5% and 67.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 17.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202635.5%
Oct 16, 202634.0%
Oct 18, 202629.0%
Oct 19, 202621.5%
Oct 20, 202630.0%
Oct 23, 202616.5%
Oct 24, 202617.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 18.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3118¢18.0%+1.5 pts$8.6K0.5%
November 308¢8.5%—$10.2K0.6%
October 313¢2.8%+0.3 pts$181.2K10.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.66M has been traded on this event in total, $159 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,178 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Silver-Eyebrows-InstructionNo3,178$2.6K
Sad-CatalysisYes2,100$378
Golden-UnemploymentNo526$432
Admired-RoleNo525$431
Belated-GlueYes421$76
Doting-CrestYes398$72
Tough-GarterYes235$42
Villainous-Panel-CharsetYes192$35
Attentive-CrewmanYes188$34
Mundane-ComradeshipYes170$31

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.5K at 80.0%BUY No — $865 at 74.0%SELL No — $468 at 97.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:30 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:26 PM ETYesBUY2.9%$1
Oct 24, 03:06 PM ETYesSELL2.0%$1
Oct 24, 10:39 AM ETYesBUY2.9%$1
Oct 23, 12:30 PM ETNoBUY98.1%$55
Oct 23, 12:28 PM ETYesBUY2.9%$2
Oct 23, 12:26 PM ETYesBUY2.9%$1
Oct 23, 12:22 PM ETYesBUY2.9%$1
Oct 23, 11:40 AM ETNoSELL97.1%$172
Oct 23, 11:29 AM ETNoSELL97.1%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 18.0%. Next is November 30 at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...??

$1.66M in total volume, with $159 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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