As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 18.0% in Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — $1.66M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 18.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -14.5 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, December 31 has traded between 16.5% and 67.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 17.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 17.0% |
December 31 is favored at 18.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 18¢ | 18.0% | +1.5 pts | $8.6K | 0.5% |
| November 30 | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $10.2K | 0.6% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.8% | +0.3 pts | $181.2K | 10.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.66M has been traded on this event in total, $159 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,178 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | No | 3,178 | $2.6K |
| Sad-Catalysis | Yes | 2,100 | $378 |
| Golden-Unemployment | No | 526 | $432 |
| Admired-Role | No | 525 | $431 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 421 | $76 |
| Doting-Crest | Yes | 398 | $72 |
| Tough-Garter | Yes | 235 | $42 |
| Villainous-Panel-Charset | Yes | 192 | $35 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 188 | $34 |
| Mundane-Comradeship | Yes | 170 | $31 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $55 |
| Oct 23, 12:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 12:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.1% | $172 |
| Oct 23, 11:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.1% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 18.0%. Next is November 30 at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$1.66M in total volume, with $159 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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