As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Elif Eralp at 83.5% in Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? — $246.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Elif Eralp, is priced at 83.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -8.0 pts; past month: +15.0 pts.
Since August 11, 2026, Elif Eralp has traded between 43.5% and 86.5%. It opened at 61.5% and last traded at 85.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.0% |
Elif Eralp is favored at 83.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elif Eralp | 84¢ | 83.5% | -1.5 pts | $158.0K | 64.2% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Stefan Evers | 9¢ | 9.4% | -0.8 pts | $57.9K | 23.5% |
| Werner Graf | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $21.2K | 8.6% |
| Steffen Krach | 1¢ | 0.5% | -0.3 pts | $5.9K | 2.4% |
| Kristin Brinker | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.1K | 1.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$246.2K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,500 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| General-Councilman | Yes | 10,500 | $8.8K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 8,795 | $1.5K |
| Each-Summary | Yes | 8,524 | $7.1K |
| Fearful-Congress | No | 5,278 | $871 |
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 4,361 | $720 |
| Liquid-Argument | No | 2,225 | $367 |
| 0x6b25c5c4… | No | 2,200 | $363 |
| Shameful-Cinnamon | No | 1,671 | $276 |
| Wonderful-Scotch | Yes | 1,617 | $1.3K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 1,600 | $1.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 84.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 05:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.2% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $46 |
| Oct 23, 09:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 01:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 84.0% | $50 |
| Oct 22, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 05:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Elif Eralp at 83.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-governing-mayor-of-berlin-1786117615442?via=bro
$246.2K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Elif Eralp, priced at 83.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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