As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 90.0% in Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by...? — $6.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 90.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: +11.0 pts.
Since September 23, 2026, December 31 has traded between 63.0% and 92.5%. It opened at 63.0% and last traded at 90.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.0% |
December 31 is favored at 90.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 90¢ | 90.0% | +3.0 pts | $2.7K | 41.4% |
| November 30 | 78¢ | 77.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.9K | 58.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 92¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (6.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 6.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.1 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna or GPT-6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 6.1, such as GPT-6 Luna (released September 22, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Sol, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6 Luna Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 470 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Humiliating-Castle | Yes | 470 | $423 |
| Plastic-Larder | No | 339 | $34 |
| Wicked-Porthole | Yes | 300 | $270 |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | No | 187 | $19 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 180 | $18 |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | Yes | 179 | $161 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | No | 60 | $6 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 40 | $4 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 39 | $4 |
| Arid-Pagoda | No | 23 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 04:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 03:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 02:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 10:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 10:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 10:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 09:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 09:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 08:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.7% | $50 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 90.0%. Next is November 30 at 77.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-luna-6pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$6.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 90.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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